| denise |
| | 01/17/12 at 06:54 PM | | #1 |
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kevin:
can i do this or would this be a stupid play. place $5 don't pass. after point is established place the 6&8 for $6 each and $5 field bet for two rolls only. after two rolls place and field bets are off. then take odds on don't pass bet and hopefully wait for early 7. just want an opinion from the experts. stupid play?
denise
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| Thomas in Reno |
| | 01/18/12 at 03:28 PM | | #2 |
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Bad play and here's why. If you hit 2 8's, you've made a whopping profit of, $4. If you're placing the 6 and 8, that's telling me the point number is either a 4, 5, 9, or 10. 3 of those numbers, are Field numbers. So, 3 Field numbers could potentially knock off your Don't Pass bet, which would then be a wash and cut even further into your profits.
No, don't play that method that way. I know John Patrick doesn't endorse this play but I've played around with it and done OK. If you're at a $5 table, bypass the come-out. Then, place the 6 and 8 for $12 each and the 5 for $10. Then, place the Field for $5. Only keep everything up for a maximum of 3 rolls. Then, remove the Field bet and cut the other bets down to $5 5 and $6 6 and 8, or remove them all entirely. A variation I play when 5's come up more frequently, is the NOT bet the 5 at all. Just Hop the 5's for $2. It makes it cost less in the event of a 7 out and can pay better.
Just search the other threads for "Iron Cross" or "Anything But Seven". This method has been discussed frequently and has many supporters, John Patrick is not one of them. And I can understand why. Quick 7-outs can ruin your bankroll fast and the Field cuts into your 2 dominant plays - 6 and 8. But, if you're seeing a lot of Field numbers rolling, it's good to play the method for 3 rolls and get some kind of payout. I've had days where I couldn't pay someone to roll a 6 or 8, but the Field and Crap numbers were rolling like crazy. This method, get's a little back from the "junk" numbers. |
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| Kevin in Atlanta |
| | 01/18/12 at 04:14 PM | | #3 |
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Hi Denise,
Your first problem is that the Field bet is a one-roll bet. You win on a 2/3/4/9/10/11/12, or you loose on a 5/6/8/7. So it's not a question of taking it down or leaving it up, every roll is a win or a loss. It's a question of re-betting or not.
I don't play the field bet, but if you can find a layout that pays you 3 times on the 12, that gives you 19 ways to win and 20 to loose, OR 2.77% vig - which isn't horrible. On a 2 time on the 12 layout, it 18 ways to win and 20 to loose or 5.56% vig, which you'll never see me play.
OK, so that clarification aside, the very short answer is Yes - it's stupid.
The problem (and the AB7/Iron Cross crowd will argue this all day - but they would be wrong) is that placing the 6/8 for $6 a piece and playing a $5 Field bet is just plain wasteful!!!! Why? Your 6 or 8 will win 10 out of 36 times, which is great and for a fee (i.e., vig) of 1.52% it's one of the best plays possible, all by it's lonely self!!! The problem with doing this and the Field is that every $7 win is wiped out because you loose $5 on the Field bet.
Worse yet, 6 out of 36 times the 7 will show, and you loose $12 on your place bets AND another $5 on the Field. Not good!
Another problem, (and I'm not quite as flummoxed by it as JP) is that when you take odds against the Point, you are laying out more dollars than you will win. Of course the free odds are true odds, so it all washes out in the end but it does expose more of your bankroll when the dice bounce against you.
OK, so does any of your idea make sense? Yeah, maybe....
You could play a $5 DP (or preferably $10 DP), then once the point is established Place the 6 and 8 for $6 a piece. Now what you are hoping for is for the shooter to throw a 6 or an 8, maybe hopefully a couple. You pick up your $7 win(s), then take down the Place bets. You are up $7 or $14, and now you sit pretty waiting for the 7 to show. Real nice when it clicks!!!
Worse case shooter throws a quick 7-out, you loose $12 on your place bets, but you win $5 (or $10 on your D/P). For a net loss of $2, if you do the $10 D/P. Thee D/P is hedging your place bets against the 7-out. Follow?
This kind of approach makes sense when the table is cold but not so cold that a couple numbers (6&8) are being thrown before that 7-out.
OK, so now the way I play more often than not, is to go with a modified Patrick System or RIc. I play the D/C for say $15 and I'll protect that by laying odds (the patrick) or a Lay bet (the Ric) sufficient to give me $20 of "insurance" against that 7-out.
Worst case on a quick 7-out I loose my D/C, but net a meager profit because of the lay. Now the twist I use (and maybe you've read previous posts where I discuss it) is to Place a $12 6 & a $12 8, at the same time as that 1st D/C. What I'm hopeing for is that the D/C travels to the 6 or 8. I pick up the $14 and I've got a Don't established. I'll do this 2 or 3 times. Maybe getting $15 and $10 D/C's established on the 6 & 8, and maybe another DOn't on the 4/5/9/10 if I'm lucky. I'm up $28 on this hand already. And I've got $35 sitting pretty waiting for the 7-out (I play a $15 D/C followed by $10 and $10). That's the perfect scenario!!!! Of course sometimes the 6 or 8 will "richochet", but I'm already up $12 on that number and that richochet nets me either a -3 or a +2, depending on whether $15 or $10 don't was sitting there, while leaving me with $10 don't sitting there.
Does that make sense?
Sounds like you picked up on my logic of doing all my work in the first 3 rolls of a hand. Up until the 3rd roll, I'm really a DO player hopeing to make money on my Place bets, while establishing my Don't play. After the 3rd roll, all Place bet's down and flip over to the Don't.
Again, works nicely on a "cool" table where the shooter is 7-out'ing, but hitting a couple 6 or 8s before that. When the table gets hot, it is suicide so you have to watch for that.
OK and just to confuse the matter a bit more. This is where my Follow the Trend play kicks in. On a cold table (as described) play it the way I said. On a "cold" table (quicker 7-outs or no 6/8's being tossed), continue with the Patrick/Ric, stop the Place bets. On a warm to hot table, continue with the 6/8 play, stop the Don't stuff (Patrick or Ric).
Needless to say, there are a lot of moving parts to this, so no drinking - LOL.
Denise, let me know your thoughts or questions. I'll keep an eye out.
Regards,
Kevin |
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| denise |
| | 01/18/12 at 06:30 PM | | #4 |
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kevin/thomas:
thank you so much. i do like placing the 6&8 for 3 or less rolls but always looking how I could maybe hedge those bets against a quick 7. didn't know if the don't pass/odds would have been a good idea or maybe a $41 no ten type of play. i guess that is what i was attempting when spelling out my line of play. i enjoy reading these posts. i love the game of craps but i want to be disciplined and smart in my plays. |
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| Dave G_CT |
| | 01/19/12 at 12:36 PM | | #5 |
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Hi Denise
Welcome to the board! Kevin covered it pretty much. As to the 41 no 4 or 10, you may take a hit in your bankroll if they hit. It seemed that you were trying to play on a conservative level. |
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| George |
| | 01/20/12 at 02:11 AM | | #6 |
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If you're playing at a $5 table you could always play a $6 don't and when the point is established place a $6 6 and a $6 8..this way the max you could lose is $6 if you don't replace the Don't if it gets knocked off by a natural and you take your bets down if the Don't point gets hit. You can profit on a hit or two on the place bets and take them down and stand on the Don't and hope for a 7 out...if the Don't point is 6 or 8 and the shooter hits it you still win a buck because you placed it off.
I believe Heavy mentioned this play at the $12 level but sounds like it could be used at whatever starting wage a person decided to use |
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| Thomas in Reno |
| | 01/20/12 at 07:05 AM | | #7 |
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One other way to play that would be considered conservative, is to play a $10 Don't Come/Pass, then Place the number that becomes the Don't for the same amount. So, a $10 Don't Come lands on the 9. You then Place the 9 for $10. If a 7 shows, you break even. If the 9 shows, you are ahead $4. Of course, the $4 win is nothing to write home about, but you can see where it can be possible to grind out a win over time. Or, you can increase your bet amount incrementally to adjust for how much you'd like to win.
If a 4 or 10 become the point and you're at the $20 level, it can get even better for you. Buy the 4 or 10 for $20 and if a 7 shows, you lose the $1 for paying the Vig on the True Odds payout, but if the number shows and you win, you get the $20 you lost on the Don't back, but another $20 minus the Vig for a $19 win.
There's no rule saying you can't play both sides of the game, just be sure to work out the math before hand to make sure when you go to the table, you know what you're doing. One screwup and you'll only be able to realize it after a loss. Since I'm a hedge bettor, I'd also suggest throwing $1 on the Yo bet for every $10 you are betting on the Don't Come/Pass. 7's will still slaughter you, but that's where the "3 and out" rule comes into play.
If you use this method of play, don't touch the Field. Grind out a profit only using the Don't/Place method. The Field will eat the wins quickly. |
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| cotim |
| | 01/20/12 at 06:41 PM | | #8 |
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| Thomas in Reno - Glad to see you still on board. Are you still a craps dealer? |
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| James Dodd |
| | 01/21/12 at 10:45 AM | | #9 |
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Thomas in Reno, All......
In your last post on hedge playing you say to ' place bet ' the five and if the 4 or ten shows as the point, to ' buy ' the 4 or 10 point.
What is the difference in ' buying ' and ' place ' betting using your instructions ?
Tks.......
Jim
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| Thomas in Reno |
| | 01/21/12 at 05:12 PM | | #10 |
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Cotim, never really left the board. Just haven't had much to say recently. Not as much discussion around here these days. Also, never was and never said I was a dealer, just a player.
If you have a Don't Pass of $20 on the 4 and then you Place the 4, you'll get paid $36 if a 4 shows and lose the Don't Pass for a net win of $16. If you Buy the 4 for $20 instead, you'll get paid $40 when the 4 shows, minus out the $1 fee to Buy a number and the Don't Pass for a net profit of $19.
Basically you're taking a little risk of losing $1 when the 7 shows, but getting a few extra dollars if the 4 or 10 shows. You could play it safer and just place the 4 or 10 for the same amount as the Don't bet and that would be fine. I'll risk $1 for a bonus payout.
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| Kevin in Atlanta |
| | 01/22/12 at 12:10 PM | | #11 |
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Hi Thomas,
Not a bad move once the 4/10 is the point, but that 8:3 battle to get it established ruins it.
Kevin |
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| Tim |
| | 01/22/12 at 01:17 PM | | #12 |
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| Kevin is right--Those 7 and 11s on the come out roll are killers and they come out more than you might think. It's not unusual to see 3 or 4 consecutive sevens on the come out roll. Unless you are running some sort of progression system or the richochet/patrick system, it's not easy to win on the DP line. |
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| PerryB |
| | 01/22/12 at 01:42 PM | | #13 |
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Thomas in Reno said: "If you have a Don't Pass of $20 on the 4 and then you Place the 4, you'll get paid $36 if a 4 shows and lose the Don't Pass for a net win of $16."
But if a seven-out is thrown, and the point of 4 is NOT made, you end up making a net win of $0.
On the other hand, if you have a DP bet of $20 against the 4, and then place the 4 for just $15, if a seven-out is rolled, you come out ahead by +$5, and if the point is made, you come out ahead by +$7. (However, as Kevin in Atlanta pointed out, first you have to get by the come-out roll.)
PerryB
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| Thomas in Reno |
| | 01/22/12 at 03:01 PM | | #14 |
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I understand all that and understand why a lot of people don't like this method. You go through all the trouble to set up a Don't bet, and then go and bet the Do side. However, what I was getting at, and I think I explained it in my first post, was that this is a method in which you can only lose when the 7 rolls on your Come Out. I never said you had to play the Don't Pass. I'd recommend it on the Don't Come, myself. Denise, the thread starter, was the one using Don't Pass, so I used it for her. The idea is to use the Don't Pass/Come bet as a "7 neutralizer". It eliminates the 7 so you can then place the # without any way to lose after that. However much or little you want to bet after establishing the Don't bet, is up to the player. If you want to hedge against the 11 on the Come Out bet, I gave a way to do that in an earlier post as well.
This isn't a method I came up with people. It was either on this board a few years back or it may even have been in one of JP's Craps books. |
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 01/23/12 at 07:43 PM | | #15 |
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I was very pleased to see so many intelligent ....and great replies to the question Denise posted......and hopefully she will put all of these suggestions into a strong approach at the table......
craps is not rocket science.....it is mostly Money Management ....but then again ...so is all gambling and all table games .....
to put it simpley....there are two key ways to playa ...one fromt the right side ....one from the dont side ....
From the DO side .....
a) By Pass the Come out ...and after the point is established ....place either $44 inside or simpy $12 six and eight.......
b) Wait for a hit on any of those numbers (which in the case of $44 inside is 18 chances of winning vs 6 ways of losing (the 7)....
c) after you ge a "hit" on any of those numbers which of course would be $14 payoff.....remove the 5 and 9 and leave up the 6 and 8.....
d) wait three as in THREE (3) more molls ....if no 6 or 8 ....come off on both of those numbers and you hav ewon $14 for that game ....you wait until the shooter either 7's out of makes the point ...and you start over .....
e) IF you get a hit on the 6 or 8 within the next 3 rolls after the first hit .....you take that payoff ...and come off with the 6 and 8 and wait for the next game ......
In the case of the DON'T betting......
a) If you have a Session amount of $100....you play the Patrick system ....
b) If you hve a $150 or higher ....you play the RICHOCHET......
You will never ever ever never never ever lose to the 7 again.....
simple ????????
Like walking across the street .....
Will you do it ??????
Nope .....not the majority .....they want the big kill ....and they will be dreaming of it long long long after they go broke chasing the dream!!!!!!!!!!
Which, in REALITY is their own personal NIGHTMARE..........(not a dream at all).............
JOHN PATRICK |
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