| samantha |
| | 11/25/08 at 12:21 PM | | #1 |
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Thanks for the informative information all of you provide us beginning craps players. In the short time I've been playing craps Mr. Patricks lessons are very valuable.
If I may, my first question is about odds. On a recent trip my husband and I took to Vegas I noticed some craps tables listing 3X, 6X or 10X odds. Are these posted odds for pass line players only or can I use them to my advantage when laying odds on my don't pass bet? I find myself (even though some players around the table frown at me) wanting to be a don't player (using the Patrick system). But I did notice some players that had big place bets taking extra odds on their don't pass bets as a hedge in case a quick 7 appeared. How much will a casino let the don't player take for odds against their initial don't pass bet?
Next question (if you don't mind) concerns betting $1 on the 12 (in the middle of the table). I noticed a player betting $25 chips on the Pass Line and for every Pass Line bet he would throw $1 for the 12 (pays 30 to 1) as a hedge bet. Mathmatically, according to Mr. Patrick's book, the 12 should appear 1 in 36 rolls. Is the $1 bet, in this instance, a good bet?
Thanks to everyone for your advice.
Samantha
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| Heavy |
| | 11/25/08 at 03:58 PM | | #2 |
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Samantha -
The free odds bet is available for both right side and wrong side players. However, you have to lay more to win less with the Free Odds bet on the Dont's. For example, on the four and ten the right side players bet $10 to win $20 on the free odds. Dark siders play it just the opposite - laying $20 odds to win $10. So on a 20X odds $10 game if you had a $10 DP and wanted max odds on the four or ten you could lay up to $400 to win $200. It's a good bet if you have the bankroll to withstand the volatility of the game. Unfortunately, most players don't.
Prop bets like the twelve are generally a bad idea. Over the long run you'll spend more on the prop bet than you'll win on the hedges.
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| samantha |
| | 11/25/08 at 04:52 PM | | #3 |
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Heavy:
Thanks! So if I calculate right (according to my John Patrick book), if I have a $25 bet on the don't pass I would need to lay the following odds:
Point number 4 or 10 / lay $50 to win $25
Point number 5 or 9 / lay $36 to win $24 (how much to win $25?)
Point number 6 or 8 / lay $30 to win $25
Correct?
Thanks again!
Sam
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| Kevin in Atlanta |
| | 11/25/08 at 08:05 PM | | #4 |
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Hi Samantha,
Your lay examples are correct and to your earlier point those amounts would be considered 1x odds. That is, 1x your D/P bet. So to win 1x your D/P bet you need to lay more $50, $36 and $30.
BTW, your 5/9 example is correct, lay $36 to win $24, IF the table had a 1x limit, but I've never seen one that I can remember. So, although there is not a clean calculation to win $25, you could lay $45 to win $30. Bascially 3:2 ratio nd you can do the math from there....
Next point, Heavy gave you the 10x example, but 2x odds would say:
on a $10 D/P that becomes a 4/10, you can lay $40 to win $20.
5x odds, lay $100 to win $50 on that same $10 D/P on the 4/10.
Kevin in Atlanta...
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| samantha |
| | 11/25/08 at 09:28 PM | | #5 |
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kevin:
what's your idea about placing the $1 on the 12 as a hedge when the player is making a $25 pass line bet. in the long run, good or bad? i'm not an expert (would like to know what Mr. Patrick thinks) but in the long run, wouldn't this be a bad bet. this guy put down a $1 chip every time he place a $25 on the pass line.
thanks
sam
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| brennan |
| | 11/25/08 at 11:19 PM | | #6 |
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SAM,
in reference to (according to Mr. Patrick's book,)none of the plays
and bets,that you are perhaps planning to try - are recommended
by John Patrick. - sorry 
btw - what other people do at the tables is hardly reliable way
to learn - in most cases you will only pick up bad habits.
"this guy was "hedging PASS LINE" bet.
IT is my understanding that you desire to bet DON"T PASS LINE bet.
Just forget it for now.What You may instead try -
should the point land on 4 or 10 or 6 or 8 :
to place HARD WAY bet to lower the odds against you.
Brennan
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| Kevin in Atlanta |
| | 11/26/08 at 07:13 PM | | #7 |
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Hi Samantha...
re: "what's your idea about placing the $1 on the 12 as a hedge when the player is making a $25 pass line bet"
BAD, BAD, BAD idea!!!
In fact, I am of the opinion that you should never, under any circumstance, ever put any chips in the middle of the table. You are paying a huge "service charge" (aka, the vig) on every one of those bets.
The guy is betting $1 on the 12 every time he bets the P/L. Not sure what the vig on that bet is off the top of my head, google it...; probably 14 or 16%. Think about it, he's trying to protect himself against something that will on average happen once every 36 P/L bets. If it happens, he gets paid what $30? So in the long run, he's loosing an additional $6 every 36 rolls then he would have otherwise.
If he rolls a 12, he'll look smart, basically a little better than breaking even (once in 36), otherwise he's loosing that $1 the other 35 times.
As for other prop bets, lots of people use it as a hedge. Bet the D/P, D/C and by course of habit drop a buck on the 11, which for an 11% vig, will pay you $15 twice every 36 rolls on average that the 11 shows (in otherword 2 out of 36 you'll break even, the other 34 times you are loosing that $1. Doesn't seem like a lot, but it adds up - drip, drip, drip.
Same with the hardways, reduces the number of ways the 7 can hurt you, but at a high cost.
Me, I'd rather test my luck, but play smart and tight w/my money. Sure, I get hit and end up occasionally loosing a $15 D/C or 3 or 4 a game, but I've got a loss limit that keeps that under control. Some bets you are just meant to loose - insurence is expensive!
It's really a bankroll preservation strategy IMHO. OK, if you haven't the bankroll, but bad strategy if you are looking to build one. Frankly, I think its a "scared money" play.
That's my opinion! Never waste a $1 on a prop bet.
Kevin in Atlanta
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| DOSA |
| | 11/26/08 at 09:24 PM | | #8 |
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| One roll bets:
2 or 12: pays 30 to 1 - 13.89 % house edge 3 or 11: pays 15 to 1 - 11.1 % house edge Any craps: pays 7 to 1 - 11.1 house edge Any: pays 4 to 1 - 16.67 % house edge Hardway bets: 4 & 10: pays 7 to 1 - 11.1 % house edge 6 & 8: pays 9 to 1 - 9.09 % house edge I personally avoid all such bets. (I think I have this mess correct - as I have several charts.)
Best of Luck
DOSA |
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| Tim |
| | 11/26/08 at 09:49 PM | | #9 |
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Mr. Patrick recommends hedge bets and he has probably played more Craps than all of us combined.
I have to admit that the hedge bets have helped me before. If I have a 15 dollar DC or DP on either the 4 or 10, I like to have a 2 dollar hardway to protect myself. I know about the vig, and I agree it seems like a bad bet. But...I can remember one time a couple of years ago, I threw caution to the wind and I had 75 bucks on the DP line and the point was 4. I was liking my chances, but after a several rolls from a hot shooter, I got nervous about the 75 bucks so I threw 11 bucks on the hard 4. The very next roll was the hard 4!
In the long run, Kevin is probably right, those dollars do add up and there is a big price (vig) to pay. Maybe hedging is a good strategy for the player who just plays for a very short amount of time (say 20-30 minutes) and wants to minimize "wipeouts"....I think hedging has it's place somewhere, but mathematically, it's difficult to defend playing it.
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 11/27/08 at 12:49 PM | | #10 |
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Samantha
First off, you have already received the excellent reponses regrding the true odd for laying and taking those odds....so I need not go down that road.......
But yesterday I wrote a post about way we should NOT lay odd and way place betting is miles better than playing the PL and taking odds, so I strongly advise you looking at that thread (I THINK I posted it to Neil....)
1) IF you play the PL (which I rarely play .....you HAVE to take odds to soften the terrible damage that PL bet does to your potential winning payoff.....But WHY play the PL and have to take odds when you can get more flexibility just place betting!!!!!!!
2) NO come betting ..period....
3) NEVER lay against the established don't number, except for the laying againt the dominant table number for ONE roll to protect your coming thru the DC to establish your dominant don't......with the PATRICK......
But that is the ONLY time you lay against a don't number (to protect a DC wager......
4) The guys gave you the correct odds to lay and take .....but it should be used for information only ......
5) No, I do not advocate playing the 12 on the comeout for PL player ......If you reach the point where you are betting over $30 on the PL....then you can make your own decision .....I would, for bets oner that amount ...but then I would not be playing the PL.....otherwise it is a sucker bet .......
6) Protecting the 11 on the $15 or higher wager with the R is something I do and advocate......but that is becaue with that dollar I get a two fold bet ......I protect againsat the 11 ...plus I still have the 1/1 and 1/2 and 2/1 going for me to win $15 with no extra bet .....
7) wrapping it up....
a) NO laying odd on established don't numbers
b) No 12 on PL bets (but then again no PL bets )...
c) MUST take odds if play PL bet and I would advise single odds for two winning plays and if you win 2 point numbers , then go to double odds for 2 more winning game ..and then 3 times odds and that is it....no higher ....
I KNEW you would get comments on the Patrick......Just ignore them but don't do something and worry about other players......
Hope this covered what you asked.......
JOHN PATRICK
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| Kevin in Atlanta |
| | 11/27/08 at 12:51 PM | | #11 |
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Hey Tim,
I play the hedge occasionally, but not all hedges are created equal!
Your D/C lands on the 6 or 8, OK place the 6/8 as protection, that's a 1.66% (I think?) service fee for insurance.
Your D/C lands on the 4/10 and you throw a buck or 2 on the H/W at 11% (thanks DOSA), that's a high price.
IMO, better to play with a tight loss limit and if your Don't 4 gets knocked down a couple times, it's off to a show or another table. Some sessions are just going to be loosers, why fight it? If you are going to loose, make them small losses!
BTW, still trying to sneak over to the Golden Moon, but the wife won't leave the dog in a kennel for a weekend. Maybe over the holidays. Kids are home from college and can babysit! Me? Yeah, she'll leave me in the kennel, but not her baby.
Kevin in Atlanta
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| Tim |
| | 11/27/08 at 05:03 PM | | #12 |
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Kevin,
I'm sure you are right about this. It's a high price to pay for the insurance. The hardway hedge saved me a few times, but I probably don't fully account for all of the times my hardway goes down. I might not fully realize how much it costs because if the 7 is rolled, you win your dominant DC or DP and you tend to forget about the hardway buck or two that is scooped up.
But I will admit that I never considered playing hardways until I read John's books.
I was at the Golden Moon about 3 weeks ago. Weekends are generally 10 dollar tables. You can usually find a 5 dollar table on weekdays. I prefer weekdays because it's less crowded and crazy at the table. Weekdays usually means I can play 5 dollar tables which allows me to use my regression methods. If you do go the Golden Moon, consider walking across the street to the Silverstar. Overall, the dealers at the Silverstar are nicer than the Golden Moon.
If you call the guy I told you about, you won't have to worry about paying for a room again. He represents casinos in Tunica, Philadelphia, Biloxi, and of course Vegas. My wife used to give me a hard time about going (sometimes I go alone) to the casino, but the last few times she hasn't said anything so maybe she is starting to accept it. It also helps when I bring back $$...
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 01/26/12 at 03:16 AM | | #13 |
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What terrible news about Samantha...........
We all remember her contributions and excellent posts which were well received by the people here ....
There are many posts here that she was involved in.....all about Craps and another one entitled "41 No Ten...."
Just thought you might like to see one of her threads .....
And this goes back to 2008......
I am positive she is where she does not need our Prayers ......but it would not hurt to send her some anyway!!!
JOHN PATRICK |
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