| Tim |
| | 01/26/12 at 12:23 AM | | #1 |
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For some of you guys who have craps simulation software, how would one fare after a large number of rolls (let's say 2,000) if you wagered $44 inside after the come out roll and came down completely after 2 hits? This is the way I place most of the time and usually I do okay with this method.
Thank you in advance. |
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| denise |
| | 01/27/12 at 12:54 AM | | #2 |
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tim:
do you chart the table first and see if inside numbers are being thrown consistent or do you just walk up to a table cold turkey and start betting the way you mentioned in this beginning thread? i'm not an expert but i would probably chart the table first otherwise you could get wacked pretty good if the table is choppy. but anyone with a simulator can program your suggestion for as many rolls as you wish and provide an answer. just curious?
denise
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| tom c |
| | 01/27/12 at 07:59 AM | | #3 |
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Tim,
Quote: "This is the way I place most of the time and usually I do ok with this method"
Have you incorporated JP's "follow the trend" method if you lose your initial bet of $44? That's the method I'm currently following with moderate success. I like switching to the "ricochet" if my initial $44 bet goes down. You can't fight a chopping table (use loss limits), as JP states, this may get you on a trend that is happening. |
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| Kevin in Atlanta |
| | 01/27/12 at 03:03 PM | | #4 |
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Hi Tim,
I don't have an answer for 2000 rolls, haven't time to program it out. The simplist and quickest calculation is to figure out what happens over the 36 possible roll outcomes.
What happens when the 5 (*4), 6 (*5), 8 (*5), 9 (*4) or 7 (*6) rolls? That accounts for 24 of the possible 36 outcomes, of course the 24 that affect you $44 bets.
Do the math (oh no, there's that word again - LOL). IF those 36 rolls disribute exactly according to probabilities (which is of course, never the short term reality), then you stand to win $252 on the 5, 6, 8, and 9. You stand to loose $264 on the 7's for a net -$12. That's average. Over 3,600 rolls, it averages to a $1,200 loss. OK, actually your answer is: $1200 * (2000/3600) or (if my calcs are correct) a $667 loss.
This is useful to simply calculate how a method will do "on average". Over those 36 rolls, if you got 1 more hit and one less 7, you'd be a +$2 winner. 3 or 4 less hits and 3 or 4 more 7's and you are hurting.
As for coming down after 2 hits (or rolls), in reality the odds are exactly the same on every roll. But by taking your bets down, you miss some hits, but you avoid the inevitable 7-out.
I've talked about "personal series" before. IMHO, this is how you take advantage. Of course, some days (some games) you're just bound to loose no matter what. Thank you Loss LImits!!!
Kevin |
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| brennan |
| | 01/27/12 at 07:08 PM | | #5 |
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Tim,
there is a blank missing in your question.
(came down completely after 2 hits?)
....for how long ( for how many rolls) are you willing
to keep this bet up for "required two hits ?"
I don't play much do side,but if I don't get single hit
within 3 rolls after CO,the bet is off and MOST certainly
regressed after one hit. |
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| Kevin in Atlanta |
| | 01/27/12 at 10:26 PM | | #6 |
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Brennan,
Exactly |
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| Tim |
| | 01/28/12 at 06:38 AM | | #7 |
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| I realize I'll get jumped on for this, but I usually keep my bets up waiting for the 2 hits. |
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| davidmcclung |
| | 01/28/12 at 03:41 PM | | #8 |
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As for inside regressions, been there and done that, does NOT help overall. Must take advantage of the few good hands to have a decent chance of overcoming the house edge.
Have been winning lately with this simple scheme:
$5 pass and $10 odds and bet the inside at $10,12 bets. Collect 4 hits, then individual full press as hit until all inside and odds bets get to $20,24 each. $700 day session bankroll. After a PSO, wait for an inside number before betting on the next shooter, those PSOs occur in clumps. Simple and will give a good chance of a winning session. |
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| PerryB |
| | 01/28/12 at 03:50 PM | | #9 |
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Tim:
“I usually keep my bets up waiting for the 2 hits.”
Did you know that more than 50% of all craps shooters not only make no point-winners, but most of them don’t even manage to throw 5 ABS rolls - before a seven-out appears? (Out of those 0 - 5 ABS rolls, how many of them do you realistically think produce “2 hits” on your numbers?)
PerryB
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| Frank Stanton |
| | 01/28/12 at 04:42 PM | | #10 |
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| Tim- Just keep track of the percentage of the events where you get more than one pay. If it is more than 50% stay with it. Frank-S |
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| Michael |
| | 01/28/12 at 10:16 PM | | #11 |
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David,
Long time no hear from,where are you playing now? |
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| Tim |
| | 01/28/12 at 10:39 PM | | #12 |
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| Perry--I hear ya and you are probably right. But with the exception of just 6 and 8 place betting, inside betting is probably the best way of playing from the right side. Do I get burned by an early PSO sometimes? Yes, it does happen--and it does suck when that happens. Charting helps but nothing can completely guard against it. |
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| James Dodd |
| | 01/29/12 at 08:23 AM | | #13 |
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Denise.
You want to have the best shot at having the upcoming outcomes " jaded " in your PL win favor.
Therefore, this is what I do.... it is called..." THREE + CAPPING. "
I wait for a min. of three same-way DP outcomes to happen....back-to-back and then I let the DP wins run until they are " capped " by a PL outcome.
I then do my inside right-side, PL spread.
I have back-tested this.... 3+ Capping.... through Zumma and it will give you the best shot at a PL win.
After a string of DP wins are ' capped ' the upcoming outcomes are now ....biased ... towards PL winnings.
Jim |
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| brennan |
| | 01/29/12 at 04:36 PM | | #14 |
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inside betting is probably the best way of playing from the right side.
Tim, the always evil 7 for that side should keep you humble.
I know it's gambling,but we want to gamble smart.
I swear by Johns 'betting in a series' method,dealing with
how to bet after win or loss,teaching you to skim some after
each and every winning hit,at least early in a session.
(even "the red baron" from Austin,TX nibbles on the cheese....) |
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| Tim |
| | 01/29/12 at 09:57 PM | | #15 |
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| Thanks for everyone's feedback. One thing we all know by now--there is such thing as "sure thing". What works last night may or may not work today. |
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