| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 12/28/11 at 02:28 PM | | #1 |
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I say this every year and sometimes when you throw something against the wall it will stick ....otherwise it will be ignored, wither and drop to the floor .....
So I will attempt (again) to reach as many of you as I can....and with only a few days until you make your resolutions (which last about 3-4 days)....let me give you one related to gambling.....
I just cut the amount of unanswered e mails down to under 140 with working round the clock (like Bill Haley does).....trying to strighten out the sometimes illogical thoeries that many of you have....(sorry, but true)....
It is no secret that Sports is my top priority 365 days a year ....Poker (4-5 times a week is second)....then Craps/Pai Gow Poker/Roulette 2 times a week (weekends) depending on which table is empty.....
There is also Tuesday or Wed nite if it is close ....like last nite .....only 30 minutes away ....and that makes for a very relaxing trip to and from.....
and to see the money thrown across the table by people DESPERATE to win....butnot knowing HOW .....it is really truly a shame ....
How do I know they are desperate .....most of them, after making a stupid decision on the table for a lousy $10 or $15 wager (which goes down).....goes into a tirade with whomever happens to be on the left ofr right side of him....including his poor wife ....who has to bear the brunt of the abuse of this dork....even thought it is HIS fault ....
You KNOW he has to win ...becaue the desperation is in his tone and manner after every losing wager ....and a win...even 410 brings absolute relief to his grief stricken face .....
and I am not knocking this attitude ....based on my mails and messages and watching these people at the tables ...they are playing and gambling aout of desperate NEED ....and losing just makes the trip to the tables that much harder to endure .....
And the pain on the faces of these people (including the little woman who is forced to stand there and watch the clueless one make stupid mistakes that cause him to lose ......is not a pretty sight.....
If I were to post the e mails (which I would nevr go against the wishes of those who write to me .....)......you would see and feel this NEED to grind out a few bucks in conjunction with the amountof their BANKROLL.....but their NEED is so great ...that accepting an intlligent return of 20% is looked upon with distain....
I hae mentioned that the amount of newcomers to the sports world has increased far far far more than at any time in the 228 years I have had this service ......and over 80% of these coming on board mention that they NEED to win $500 or $400 or $300 (t start) a week.....
and I go back and explain to them with the BANKROLLS they have to work with....it is a total impossibility to have such lofty dreams ......
Last nite I could not get to the Craps or Pai Gos table (packed) but I did watch the mistakes of the people I mentioned above ........and had plenty of time (I was not playing ) to study thier actions and a couple of them counted their chips 4-5-6-7 times after every roll, as if to think (hope) that the total grew in between the last count .....
You KNEW they were playing with SCARED money.....
I finally went to the roulette table when a spot opened up and I played for aobut 90 minutes on a $500 buy in.....I started with Black/Low....and after about a half hour added Even.....giving me everything on the board except the double green and 19-21-23-25-27- (HIGH/RED/ODD)where no return at all was coming....
That means 7 numbers out of the 38 was a downer ....some numbers were a one unit loss and some were either a one unit win ....like 13...15...17...
and of course the BONANZAS are 2...4...6...8...10....
but it was a steady (not spectacular) grind ...and after awhile I was into G & E....confident that the ride home would be enjoyable ....
It was a $10 table and I was up about $330 and hoping I could reach $400 before I had to leave to get home and hedge my Laker bet at $10:30.....and while wrapped in my calculations of getting to plus $400............a funny thing happened to the wheel..........it kicked off 19...19....23 in rapid fire results .....$90 down the tubes .....and a profit of $240 now the present figure .....
Well, 3 losses in a row....and it took me 2 tenths of a second to decide the time to leave had arrived .....
I tried to make it home for the start of the Laker game but missed it by a freckle ......
so far that day, I had swept the board ....and the Lakers to win minus 200 was all I neededd for a BONANZA.....but I still wanted to hedge my play.....with Utah getting almost double digits in a BUY, looking for a middle.....
Why would I wanna hedge a bet where I was already sweeping the board?????? because that is what you'r SUPPOSED TO DO with TAGS.....
anyhoo....the game crawled to the half and I had Lakers up about 20 points with the win almost guaranteed ....so I did not have to hedge, did I??????? Utah could not overcome a 20 point deficit, could they.....
I put in my hedge bet (because that is what you are supposed to do).....took Utes getting double digits ...and went about answering another 50 e mails ....
No, I did not catch a middle....Lakers romped, giving me a BONANZA sweep....(minus the hedging ) because that is what you're supposed to do.....
I did not win enough to buy myself a condo.....and in fact, someof you might think "settling" for $240 at the roulette table was a chicken move ....to quit .....
No.............3 losses in a row is a sign that is pre determined and followed ....just as hedging s pre determined and followed to the T............
I also have 3 open plays from yesterday sports plays ...and they WILL be hedged as soon as I finish this .....because that is what .....ohhhhhhhhh, I already said that......
The point of this is that it is the MONEY MANAGEMENT moves that are the true weapons that we can use atthe game of our choice ......Would I have been agreeable to taking $140 from that Roulette game instead of $240?????\
Hey, if things went bad when I reached a profit of $140.....and I lost three spins in a row ....I would have been happy with a $50 profit ....and yes....i would have left to go home and put in my hedge on another guaranteed winner .....regardless of the amount ....
What is so hard about playing like that .....why can't you see the difference between playing the make a killing and leaving yourself open for larger losses ....and grinding and being able to build a BR ....large enough to allow you to start with higher amounts of money....therefore allowing a 20% return to be QUITE a sizable return ........
Why not give these Theories a one year chance (shot).....even on days that show no great run of success....your losses will not be in the toilet.....
In sports....Tuesday stats my week....and I have kexplained that on many occasions and that I reduce the amount of my bets to an average amount.......so that a loss on the kickoff day does not leave me in deep trouble...
Well, Tuesday also signals the beginning of the week for me in poker and table games ......and if I were to lose on a Tuesday.....the smae mindset carries over to Wed......where my wagers are small in comparison to what they are in the latter part of the week, when I might have a profit sitting to the side .....
It is not hard to win at gambling and it is very very very easy to lose but it is the percentages of profit, based on each of your own personal Bankrolls, that muct be taken into consideration.....
I tell this to the people on the spors every day....If you have $50 to bet today.....you are a $5 parlay or teaser player ....that is just the blunt truth of the situation.....
If you have $500 BR for todays plays ......you an up that average bet to $50 in stead of $5......but that does not mean you HAVE to go right to $50.....you can start with $20 or $30 wagers and increase as you win .....but it is the MM betting moves that you people just don't grasp.....
I now have 4 hours of handicapping to do.....but if I get a chance later on today or tomorrow .....I will go over the Roulette play (s) I employ at the table ....roulette is not a bad game ....and there are many methods to use ......but I stick to just 6 ......and that is with 2 or 3 of them kdminating my choice each time I play......
January 1 is a few days away.....what is so wrong with doing a 360 and trying a method that you may not like (toooooo constricted ).....but that might just show you HOW easy it is to bet ....INTELLIGENTLY!!!!
I AM NOT A BETTING MAN, I am a grinder .....an investor ......I am a hedger.....I invest my money and time in a method that calls for a hedging grinding approach .....
And the boredom of such an exercise is rewarded with the return (although small) of items that are green in color .....and are most dear to my heart...and I keep them in my wallet ....
I think they call them money.....I call them "rewards"......(for my boring efforts)
JOHN PATRICK
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| James Fritz |
| | 12/29/11 at 05:07 PM | | #2 |
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John.Many players are going to view their trip to the casino, like going to the carnival.They're there to have fun and to goof around, than to work on methods to turn profit and cut losses down from losing.It's not just the older generation that does this, but also the Gen X and Gen Y groups do too.By the end of this decade, add the Millenia group to this too.
It's the pressure of the shrinking middle class, higher unemployment, outsourcing of jobs, which is hurting all American and Canadians.
There's a war happening for those that want to crush the middle class for more money, and those that want a middle class, to keep money flowing into the country.
With more tables at $10-$15 for a minimum bet, that means a bigger bankroll to bring to the tables.The tough times are here, and not like the "good old days".
Spain has a 21.4% unemployment rate, and that was on Yahoo news.They're showing signs of a depression, that's a major warning of what could come this way.
Also the concern is the rising costs of gas and car repairs.
The 10%-20% win goal, feels right to me, when I gamble.
I'm on a tough road now, but there's a lot of light and happiness at the end of it.
I've decided to add sports betting later in my life, and just focus on what I play online and at the casinos.
Why don't you play your Action Number 1 or Action Number 2 method? I would love for you to expand on how to switch from both methods, when charting, so a roulette player can keep those win streaks continuing.
I would like to know more about the mathematics behind the "Sayonara" bet, because I would like to work on how to maximize wins off of this bet, with the use of regression betting.
I hope that you and the other gamblers have a great 2012.
Online poker is right around the corner, and that will change how Americans gamble poker online, just like back before 2004.
Best wishes
James Fritz |
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| LA Primarily JP Follower |
| | 01/01/12 at 10:57 AM | | #3 |
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If Casino Players are really serious about making money, they then need to be able to fully accept John Patrick's concept of "Playing To Win" (or to at least cut down on their potential losses) instead of just "Playing To Play."
Players really need to restrict their play to games where the casino advantage is not too high and then in addition, they need to carefully manage and control their money as well as to be willing to work within the confines of whatever Bankroll they end up bringing to the tables.
They really need to be content with stopping their play once they have guaranteed themselves a decent and reasonable percentage return (just as if they were investing money in a bank). But this "decent and reasonable return" should be a lot lower than people think it should be.
What is pretty decent monetarily for Players is to have a Guaranteed Win Goal of no more than about 20% of what they bring to the table (and an even lower percentage is better -- such as 5-10%).
Players need to not be aiming for making a killing (such as having the goal of Doubling or more their money) and they also need to not be "forcing a win to happen."
Players really need to be accepting John Patrick's concept that "It's not how much you win but how little you lose that really matters" as well as to restrict their play to where they very carefully end up cherry picking what they play and then to strictly confine their bets to be within their pre-determined playing session pot.
Players really need to accept the concept that when they go to a place where their goal is to make money, then whether they like it or not, it becomes a form of work. And so if a Player is going to work, if this person is not trained properly in how to deal with the work at hand, then this person will then end up increasing his/her likelihood of suffering (through their doing things incorrectly)!
Players really actually need to take the emotion out of the game and then just play according to the mathematical probabilities that are at hand while at the same time having complete control of their money and then to have the Discipline to leave the casino once they reach their pre-determined (and reasonable) Win Goal or Loss Limit!
And Players really have to want to win badly enough to accept the confines of how they really need to be playing (which is in a very conservative manner)! Players need to do all of this stuff or it really is not worth their playing and it will then only make it worse for the player to play instead of just not playing at all!
Most Respectfully,
LA Primarily JP Follower |
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| brennan |
| | 01/02/12 at 03:19 PM | | #4 |
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Give more than 100% and then some more to whatever you do.
Everyone knows this “more than 100%” golden rule, but just a few practice it.
These are the people who are the most successful people
in every job or profession and in everyday life.
This golden rule is for everyone but more so for you guys out there
who want to make money gambling
If you had long forgotten the golden rule, it is time you put them on your walls
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 01/06/12 at 02:14 PM | | #5 |
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January 6,
I want to follow up this message as the comments I get thru e mails (mostly from the newcomers to the sports serevice have to do with the "greed" factor ......
Most of the newbies wanna more ...especially on days when I have a good or great picking group.....like in the last two days we swept th eboard both Wednesday and Thursday.....
and based on my message on the pins on tuesday....I suggested DROPPING the amount of the bets since we were coming into a new season....a new group of games (hoops and Hockey, as opposed to the football games where we had such a tremendous run....
and I said that it is best to dive with the amount of your wagers until I see HOW form holds up.....and as soon as two straight days kicked off a no lose run.....many wanted to know when it is feasible to start betting higher .....
On the pins last nite I talked about "FORM"....and ran out of time, so I will try to get that message across in a deeper meaning......becaue FORM is important to my way of choosing teams and many pros who also depend on FORM to carry them through....
You have heard of people commenting on how certain horses run to "FORM".....which means how their past performances dictate what SHOULD SHOULD SHOULD happen in this next race .....
It is really another name for CHARTING.....wich I am totally committed to ....yet draw a constant barrage of ire and idiotic comments from the clueless who visit this board that CHARTING is a waste of time ...
NO NO NO ....charting is the method I use to find form...and form is what we need to make intelligent decisions....
Go back over the records of every baseball season...or football season or Hockey season or NBA or college converence results .....wat will you find ?????
Winning percentages that hover around the 63% to68 % range .....
There will be cases that the winning team in a particular year will climb into the mid 70% winning pct. but not that often ....becaue FORM does not hold up all the time .....but it holds up enough (over 60%) to make the 4 hours a day I spend going over results of the teams I bet on.....) worth while.....
I NEED the teams to fall into a pattern of form ...like say I see that a team lost 6 of last 7 games ....I ain't even going to consider betting ON that team ...I will bet against it or toss the game out....
Last nite I followed up the sweep of the day before with another clean sweep.....because form held up.....and I even mentioned on the PICK pins that I didn't even spend 5 seconds deciding if I would give out Boston in hockey....I knew they were on a tear .....and yes, they became one of the 4 winners in our winnning STRING parlay in hockey.....
I received a few e mails questioning whether I was afraid that they were DUE to lose ...I don't buy that .....they are scorching and why not bet a team on a white khot roll to win....rather than gamble on one that is struggling....?
boston won 9-0.....and that is no surprise .....charting allows me to zero in on form ....and when form (which means the team is playing to the capability ....of what they are CAPABLE of doing.....
You NEVER hear me bet againstGreen Bay ....or New Orleans .....or New england ......or Duke.....or USC......or Red Sox or Yanks ......or players such as Halliday.....Lincecum.....Carpenter....Lee.....
because all of the above have a pattern of playing to form....they are good and in over 65% of the time they are going to win....that is 65%vs 35% chance of losing.....
Why NOT stay with them....but there is an added factor that I pour into my theory.....
There are many pro sports players and even regular fans who know who SHOULD WIN......Heck, years ago, I knew every stat in the Universe and bet sports daily...and got clobbered .....
because I did not know HOW to bet .....
Knowing WHO was supposed to win did not cut it ....because they won the usual 60% to 68% of the time ....and I needed a little higher pct. to make the overall betting process a success....
So I learned HOW to use teasers ....HOW to BUY points .....HOW to hedge games .....that's what pushed me over the top....to allow me to bet 365 days a year ......lack of greed and KNOWLEDGE of HOW to use the extra things that the MAN puts out there and HOW I can use it to my advantage .....
I have said this before .....most of the veteran players who take my service for years ....KNOW AS MUCH ABOUT THE TEAMS AS I DO........we aoften discuss this fact .....they know ahead of time ....befor e I put on the picks ....WHO I will give out.....
But it is the HOW that they tap my brain.....HOW to use the things....little things like criss crossing....any time during a STRING of bets, even kickoff games ....HOW to use TIME ZONE betting....
HOW to use HALF TIME lines.....and when to use teasers in comparison to Parlays .....HOW IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN WHO.......
Which brings us back to FORM.....I know who I like in a game after going over the past 3-4 results (looking for the recent pattern)....but that is not enough ...because just in case that team does NOT follow form on that particular niite or something that you cannot figure into your handicapping.....
a fumble .....a flagrant foul.....a bad call.......an interception.....an injury to a key player during the game .....any one of dozens of factors can affect FORM....so th euse of BUYS and teasers come in really handy...and while these moves cut into potential larger payouts....there atre times that we would NOT won.....if we had not used the teaser or BUY.....
I did not need any hlp last nite as all 6 plays coasted to a win, without use of any outside extra help.....and I would have got considerabley MORE money if I did not BUY points ....
but that is hind-sight....you need to zero in on a THEORYand stick to it ....
FORM WILL hold up over60% of the time ....I bring you to 70% to 75% by using what the MAN makes available .....
Sports betting is far and away easier than the random game of Craps or Pai GOW or any table game ......but a lot of people can't stand the frustrations of BAD BEATS....and so they give up....not realizing that they can bet on teams that have a ^0% to 65% chance of winning (just check your standings on any and every team in the UNIVERSE and you can see who SHOULD win.....
then you use the tools you have to increase those chances ....
And if it is the DOG that a sports bettor decides to bet on....don't just take the points or goals or runs from the pro line ...BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY .....those extras.....
It increases your chances of winning.....and more importantly ....decreases your chances of losing.....
what better gambling outlet gives you all those options....
I will now begin my 3 to 4 hour "drag" of deciding on who gets my nod tonite .....and if form holds up ....it will a third straight day of sweeps....
If it doesn't .....if form does NOT hold up.....there is the little move called hedging and criss crossing your bets .....a subject for another time ......
THINK....it is 2012.....change your patternof betting.....change your game if you are not winning.....
I strongly recommend Sports and Poker (POKER, only if you are perfect).....and simply Craps or Pai Gow Poker or outsidebets of Roulette in the casino .......
finally....a lot of you will wager on that Monday nite championship game in college football...every single solitary day ...after Church...at the ball park and gyms where I coach.....in the post office or the bank ...in th ePublix where I shop....people ask "WHO do you like on Monday?????????"
Rightnow I have 17 open bets ...17!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and no matter WHO wins .....I could NOT care less.....the game is an exercise between two sets of palyers who will act like idiots in their so called 15 minutes of fame .....and many people will lose their hard earned money.....picking who they are fans of or who they THINK will win....
Thisould be decided by 14points and I WIN EVERYTHING.........any other winning number will give me a push....no loss at all......zippo risk to my Bankroll....no matter who wins....
ULS could win or Maabala could win, or whatever the names of the combatants are ....and I don't give a rats tail is the game is over the number or under the number .....
As long as if falls between 33 and 47 .......I will sweep the board ....win ALL overs and UNDERS ....
Any number UP to 33 or any number OVER 47 ....and I break even .....get all my money back......
That is a 14 point cushion on both the side (who wins) or the total(high or low scoring)....
THAT is HOW you bet sports ....so if you pass me on the street in the next 4 days ....don't waste your breath asking me what do I think about the outcome of the game ........I could not give you an intelligent answer
Mostly because I don't look at that game as you "normal" people do......I look at it as a way to win money...it is merely an object where I manipulate the numbers ...
And if I don't win the middle......the game is out of my mind in minutes after the final gun....and my thoughts are on the next game ....even if it is a game between SLIPPERY ROCK UNIVERSITY and the LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR....
If there is a line on the game ....I will the numbers to FORM my bets and put them in....and if FORM comes within 14 points either way.......BONANZA .....if not...on to the next game .....
THINK about it .....make 2012 the year you grop up in gambling.....
Nest I will go over ROULETTE....yeah...a name the pundits claim has tooooooooo high a vig.....but then again, they don't even understand the meaning of vig......
JOHN PATRICK
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| trackman |
| | 01/07/12 at 12:40 AM | | #6 |
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| watch those LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR. They got some mean linebackers. |
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 01/10/12 at 02:14 PM | | #7 |
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Well, the football season is winding down and I have asked those of you on the pins to change your way this year....and even those of you who are getting interested in both the sports and the casino games that you find available ....
In 2012 ...I ask that you grasp the REALITY of what I am saying and dive in your anticipated and hoped for returns whatever game you play .......30 % of your BR is kreally far out......really....in all honesty a pipe dream......
20%...that is what I would take as a concession to the real amount you shold go for ...and 20% leaves open the door for a nice return even with GUARANTEE and EXCESS....
NO....I do not expect many of you to take the 20% figure ...and that is your choice.....but if you ver wanted to make a nice yearly return in gambling....20% would be a nice place to start ......
Last nite I lost that so called kgame of the year when alabama shut out the number 1 team in the country....you know...the one rated as the best in the land ......and I admit I went for them as an undefeated team getting 8 points is a steal......normally....
but gambling these days is not normal......you gotta be a little nuts to do it every day of the week like I do and many others like me ....but the difference with me is that I can lose a game like that and lose 3 BAD BEATS the nite before ...and still show a profit for the week....no, not a big one....but going into Sunday .....we were flying high.....
On sunday we lost a game in OT....the next one went a kicker missed a chipie 20 yard FG.....which cost us the over by 1 point ....and then a three team parlay in hoopps with two winners in.....and needing over a lousy 34 points in the final quarter to wrap up the day ...and we lost all three of those games...
but by the grace of hedging and crioss crossing and covering oes back......the losses were protected from a standpoint of conservative approaches and the week ended in a small but profitable mode ...and is that not what gambling is all about....
No......a lot of you won't grasp that ....and finally, as to what I would like you to do in 2012 is accept 10% profit on your days investments .....
OK...........with that being said ....I am sure I have lost quite a few viewers and maybe down to single digits of those smart enough to realize what I am saying.....
As I get the chance, I will go over the games you HSOULD concentrate on .....
Sports Betting.......Poker .....Craps .....Pai Gow Poker .....Roulette......Baccarat......throw everything out the the window except for those 6 .....
first off.....NO GAMBLING on the Internet except to play Sports or Poker ...no table games AT ALL PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!
And set Win Goals based on your starting BR.....and since Bankroll is part o fthe Big 4 ....you should know what it is for now .....and we will now take an imagined $300 BR to the Roulette section......
In my limited grandma and Hy schol education, I learned to reed and rite .....and every time I mention this method I use at the Roulette table ....I get the cat calls from the dorks that love to criticize but nver take the time to THINK what they are blabbering about.....
Gambling is something we all awant to win at ....I am no exception ....years ago, I started out with dream of becoming ridh with gambling because I knew the games I played inside out ....and I went thru a period of about 10-12 yers ...completely broke .....becasue I never realized the pitfalls in this lifestyle ....
Gambling is not about thinking you are going to win every day...thatis impossible ...and when I grasped the REALITY that it was more important to prserve my BR by limiting lossses (called LOSS LIMITS).....than going for the kill, my success at the games of my choice started to do a 360......
No, I never became rich....but that no longer mattered, after I settled into making my life in this venue a normal JOB....much like you normal people do automatically.....
roulette was one of the games I zeroed in on...as there are more possible avenues of bets than any other game on the planet......
Many of you are aware of my "Action Number system" and I have explained that on many occasions....but I seem to gravitate to the BLACK/LOW/EVEN approach more and more .....
Last Friday nite I played R since I could not get to a Craps or PG table .....and on saturday nit, when I gave a seminar to a company down here who is planning a trip to vegas for their employees....I wnet deep into the various methods available at roulette .....and this method I especially zeroed in on.....
I chart the tables and then, if Black and Low are showing in a percentage of spins of about 70% of the time (one or the other ).....I buy in and use the Regression system of course on both Low and Black ...and we will say it is a $5 table ......
yes, the place I was at HAD three R tables and two of them were $5 and one was $10.....I went to the $10 table but for the sake of Saturdays seminar and this message, I will make due with a $5 table betting scheme......
My first bet is $10 on the two dominants I choose....I NEVER ever evr never EVER play High or red or odd ....and that is so I do not go home second guessing myself on the outside bets I stick to....I NEVER deviate .....
Look at what I have done to the board....which contains 38 different individual numbers ......the low bet covers 1-18 leaving only the 18 high numbers and the 0-00 open.......and the black bet covers 18 black numbers which are 2-4-6-8-10-11-13-15-17-20-22-24-26-28-29-31-33-35...meaning the 18 open numbers that the LOW bet did NOT cover was now cut in half by the use of BLACK bet .....
I have available, a double hit on the low /black numbers of 2-4-6-8-10-11-13-15-17.......which of course is what I look for .....
and with the 9 black coverages on the high numbers of 19-36.....I have covered everything except the high red numbers of 19-21-23-25-27-30-32-34-36-0-00.....meaning of the 38 numbers on the board .....only nine stand in my way of getting something back......(the high red numbers and 0-00......)
I am reducing my chances of losing....
The other nite I bought in for $400with a 30% LOSS LIMIT ($120......and/or 3 consecutive losses, (which never happened)......and in all honesty ...that 30% is a guide not a written in the sand hard core LOSS LIMIT....If I see things going choppy and I have lost about 20% of my buy in, in this case $80....I do not stay round to be ground down to the 30% LL ....just becaue I set that up.....
I detest losing as much (well, maybe not as much, but less than I detest anything that requires effort for accomplishment, such as a daily job......)
so setting a LL and leaving evern before i reach it, is something I do all the time when things are going south....
Now, each of those two bets (one on low the other on Black), work individually of the other.....like sometimes I can run off a 5-6-7 consecutive run of spins that kickoff a LOW ....which the black is sputtering .....but with 3 losses in a row (ON EACH ONE SEPARATELY)......a chopping table on the black run can't hurt me becaue of the REGRESSION method of betting where I can w.....l.....w.....l.....w.....l.....w.....l.....and make myself $20 on a $10/$5 starting SERIES......
My overall series in this case for each individual category would be 10...5...10...15...15...5...10...20...25...10...etc...
But IF, either black or Low entered into a 3 game losing streak....I would cease betting on that category and stay with the one that is hitting....
PLUS....and this is why you have to concentrate on the flow of th egame....EVEN is my third choice of plays and as soon as I start my Session with the two categories.....I am watching the results of the EVEN numbers ...and IF they are shoing in a 65 to 70% winning pattern...I ADD that third category to the other two.....
Now I have, with the inclusion of EVEN.....picked up all the EVEN numbers in its own separate Regression SERIES.....
That gives me TRIPLE RETURNS on 2...4...6...8...10
That gives me DOUBLE RETURNS on 12...14...16...18...(even though they are RED...)
and double returns on 20...22...24...26...28...
and also gives me a return on several of the high red numbers that I dread .......such as 30...32...34...36...
leaving only the killer numbers of 19...21...23...25...27...0...00 to worry about .....
But the total amount of a wipeout when those nubers show....is MORE than made up for the triple possibilities I have going ....plus the double possibilities that I have in my corner .....
Many of you have heard me in the past MANY MANY MANY times explain the fadct that I consider gambling exactly equal to normal family life for normal humn beings.....(not the garbage like yours truly who are considered low lifes for our choice of employment .....)
Is this approach at roulette a grind??????????
Well, isn't going to work every day a grind????? or running a household.....cleaning, cooking, shopping, taking the kids to play dates, to soccer or baseball games or dances, or cutting the lawn, or fixing broken toys, or broken fences or washing cars, or saving kpennies for the kids college, or medical bills, or money for vacation, or caring for parents and in laws who need assistance ..... the list goes on.....
Life is great....but it is a grind meeting the necessities of everyday life ......because IT IS WORTH IT IN THE LONG RUN....
Well, grinding in gambling is also worth it if you can show a profit for the grind you have to go thru....
I keep my Buy in broken into piles that show me to the chip how much I am ahead after every single solitary game is completed ....just like in a job, you can have a desk full of papers scattered in what appears to be a "mess" but the proprietor of that "mess" knows exactly what each piece of paper is attached to ....
Well, I know exactly how much I am ahead or behind every single minute .....and yes, the grind is worth it .....
this method is powerful in that it is very difficult to find where every single category of the three you have working is all failing at the same time ....but with only 19...21...23...25...27...0...00 to look out for ....my ability to count up to 20, with no cheating, allows me to know exactly where I stand thruout the session....
I am well aware of the cat calls I receive from the dorks that are too stupid to analyze what I am showing you ....and in fact, you can leaf back thru the message board to find where and who these idiots are ......
Yes, the premise is to cut down my chances (numbers) of losing......and by covering so many numbers .....the chances of getting rich with this approach rival my jumping off the Empire state Building and landing on my feet......
although admittedly the jump off that building is probably the better chance of winning.......you don't get paid for that exercise....the playing of the LOW/BLACK/EVEN....does have the promise of financial returns .....
Think about this approach.....
I used it Friday nite and walked away with a profit (grind) of $235 (after deducting gas, tolls (the game was 60 miles away), tips, coffee and donuts ......
I even got home before 3 am......so got to get to bed early for a change .............
Roulette is not a bad game .....the method is easy to apply ....the grinding will grow on you....and the results, as long as you stick to the strict Win Goals, use G & E....and apply LOSS LIMITS ....will have you going back and using this approach again.....because it works !!!!!!
If you get a chance....go look at the thread This n That by Rick K......his last one on sunday was terrific....HOW he played in ahold em game .....HOW he read the cards and the opponents and HOW he walked away with a profit ....not the amount you "DREAMERS" set as your ridiculos goals ...but a profit that speaks well of the player himself .....
Now if only HIS words would reach YOUR mind set .....
JOHN PATRICK
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| Gerard711 |
| | 01/10/12 at 02:48 PM | | #8 |
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John
Another excellent post , I have a question you mentioned not to play online where the software is really in control ,they just opened a casino at Aqueduct and they have video roulette machine which is a no-no , but they also have a auto-matic wheel with a live ball that spins on its own no dealer needed. Do you think this falls into a playable /charting roulette game.Its 15 min. from my door so that 2 1/2 hour ride to A.C. can be eliminated with $13 dollar tolls on both the Verrazano bridge and Outerbridge
plus the Garden State parkway plus gas your looking at around $60 driving expense not counting the coffee and doughnuts needed for the ride home,Im gonna be looking at this roulette wheel again when I get there again also the have auto baccarat machines real cards being delt no dealer. Can you go over some thoughts on the Bac. play ,Thanks again for helping us regular folk out during these trying times
G711 |
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| Tim |
| | 01/10/12 at 05:49 PM | | #9 |
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John,
Your approach makes sense to me. I'm headed to Vegas on Saturday and I will give this method a shot.
What do you think about playing 15 dollars on the 1-18 and 10 dollars on the last dozen? You have 30 numbers covered but the payout is only 5 bucks and you are risking 25 dollars. Of couse, you should win ~79% of the time using this method, but it feels a little like the "anything but 7" bet on the craps table. You will win most of the time with this roulette method, but when one of the bad 8 numbers comes in, it hurts.
Thank you for your feedback.
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 01/15/12 at 03:43 PM | | #10 |
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January 15,
Yesterday proved beyond any shodow of a doubt the power of hedging and protecting the dominant .....and making a BAD BEAT tuned down to a tough loss .....
Yesterday was one of the weirdest finishes and a terrible BAD BEAT for anyone and everyone who had New Orleans to win.....and the total collapse of the NO defense, depriving the Saints to advance was one for the books .....
Yes, I gave out NO as the dominant and also the criss cross over to SF in the setting up of a middle ......I wanted NO to win of course, but if they didn't, our method of play also zeroed in on SF getting the points .....
With 10 seconds to go we had a fabulous middle......wnning EVERYTHING...
with 9 seconds to go the middle collapsed and we lost the dominant but the hedge onto SF gave us a payoff on that set of TAGS that were set up individually, as I explained for you to do every day last week....to take all 4 picks in a teaser set in TZ and then to set each pick separately in their own criss cross.....
I surely did not want NO to lose, but the money returned on SF....plus the carry forward to NE under 59....which won by the way ....and THAT criss cross play to the over 45 on that game, which also won, gave us the middle we lost in the first game ......
so..........if you go back to the top of this thread, you will see where I TOLD you to pay attention to these moves that for 2012 ....I asked you to just give them a chance and I was really happy to get the loads of e mails breathing a sugh of relief that they did not sit on that NO pick.....(I am truly sorry for those who just don't get the power of smart handicapping....
after the smoke cleared for those two games, one a terrible BAD BEAT that was averted thru smart HOW TO BET MOVES.....and th ewinning middle we had for the NE/Denver game .....my lament was in the result of a hockey parlay......NOT the football game where I had 4 figures going for me in that middle....(lost middle)....
I had a mere pittance in comparison in a 4 team hockey parlay where thre teams coasted in ....and all I needed was a W from the best team in hockey (Boston)...playing one of the coldest (no pun intended ) teams in hockey .....and lost with 90 seconds to go in regulation....
THAT HURT!!!!! Why??? Because it was a bet that was intended for a days pay parlay and had NO WAY to hedge .....
See what happens when you bet the "standard" method ....no way to protect your bet ????????
Anyhoo..........a disaster was averted ...and this is what I ask you people to avoid this year ......just grasp the Theory that helps you avert damage to your BR....I can't sit and hold your hand ...but I can lay out the moves ....and hope you follow them....
today is a great set of games set in TZ and I gave you all types of plays including TZ teasers .....BUYS.....and criss crosses with other sporting events ...all designed to return a nice profit if all hit....and a tiny loss if every dominant goes belly up.......
I also gave you plays in the hockey schedule and the NBA ......in fact ......they have as much of my attention as these so called "glory" football games .....a bet is a bet is a bet and where money is concerned....I ask that you LISTEN TO ME...........
In a somber note....my complete and total apologies to all those (34 in the last 3 days) who have e mailed me and left phone messages for me too give you the picks for this weekend ...and especially to the 14 whho uttered the words ......"the check is in th e mail"..........sorry......no way I go down that road again.....
Besides, the picks are of no use to you in a flat bet scenario.....You need the lead in games and the method of hedging with carry forward bets to make my system go .....
Even if I told you WHO I like ....and would NOT help yoiu except in a two team BUY PARLAY or teaser.....with no way to criss cross with the hockey and NBA BUYS ....that become part of the package ....
If you can't afford $200 for 6 months (about 88 cents a day......) than you would not listen to me anyway ......again, my sincere apologies ......
But I will give you a three team parlay (with the football plays eliminated) in the STRING plays for the day.....and just take a look at the approach I use for these wagers .....
The wager is in TZ.......with (in this case) three hockey games, where I have been pretty good the past couple of days.....
Washington -235 vs Carolina.........Rangers -135 vs Montreal.......Vancouver -235 vs anaheim in the TAG position with a middle posibility with Anaheim getting the +1.5 goals in a carry forward parlay with next weeks football matchups (when they are posted tonite)......IF the two kickoff games win....
Also....the whole key is the first game ....IF Washington wins at 5 pm......then you are in no lose situation with the two back end games .......(if Wash. loses, you start a two teamer with second level play) and the NBA game Denver/Utah in BUY position of over 200 (buying 6 points)...hooked with the hockey TAG of Vancouver ..............
As I mentioned on the pins today.....after the BAlt./Houston game is final....the sites will post next weeks lines on the NE/winner of Balt./Houston game ....and I will give you the set up of the hedge off of the Giants/Green Bay game....hooked with next weeks AFL football game ......
That is IF IF IF there is enough betting time between result of the first game and start of the Giants/GB game .....
It is 15 days into 2012.....for those of you contacting me about HOW to bet sports ....now is the time to change your "OLD WAYS" method of flat betting......you can't get hurt and whiile the gigantic payoffs you dream about is only possible if we hit a 4....5....6 day SHOT......you have to learn to ACCEPT SMALL RETURNS........
The more you win....THEN you can increase your bets ....but you start off with $10 (yes, I said $10 and $15 yes I said $15 parlays) wagers .....until you learn HOW TO WIN..........
Do NOT make that hockey parlay bet unless you plan to follow the guidelines of a TZ wager ..........
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Just wanted to add a footnote to what I said above, about coming on at 4 pm when first game ends and we have any bets open....and th esites list next weeks line on the AFC game.....so as to hook the Giants/GB game with a carry forward play........
I notice that Baltimore already scored 17 points in the first quarter .....with the plays I gave you in that game ......(over 31 in a BUY plays ....and Baltimore -3 in teaser plays ....it is totally and completely impossible for us to lose both bets .....no matter what happens from here on out in that game and no matter the final score .....we cannot lose all of the bets but we CAN WIN BOTH OVER AND BALTIMORE.........
So either BOTH the side and the total will win or ONE of them will win, meaning we are already alive for the hook up withe later game ....and for the purpose of hooking up with next weeks game ...I will give you the leans IF IF IF they are posted .....
Look at the bad part of this equation.....with Baltimore already scoring 17 points ...there is no need to watch the rest of the game ....you cannot lose both the total and side ....and if you set them in TAGS like I told you to......you have a guaranteed payoff coming for this game already.....
so go turn off the TV set for the last 3 quarters....and go play with your kids ......you are already in fat city.....(grin)
My set is already off.....
JOHN PATRICK
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 01/15/12 at 07:20 PM | | #11 |
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Jan. 15
This is second post .....as in follow up to the one above regarding the handling of the Giants/GB game hooked up with the NE/Baltimore game next week.....
NE is favored by 7.5 and 8.5 (two different lines so far with the total opening at 50..........
Since we won the baltimore game in a teaser -3 .....plus caught a middle with Houston +11 and +14.5.......we are in fat fat city since the game also kicked off a middle on thje teaser total of over 30 and 31 ....which I gave you last Tuesday....telling you the line was toooooo low ....
well, it ended at 33 giving us the teaser win and also the hedge back to under 43 when line climbed to 35 .....so we caught two middles on that game .....BONANZA!!!!!!!!!!!
We are hooked with the set up of middles with the Giants/Green Bay under 59.2 as the dominant under ....and over 45.5 with the criss cross over .....setting up a 14 point middle ....
We cannot lose both but can win both ...and with the Baltimore game kicking off two middles ......hooked with this Giants/Green Bay game .....all you need do is sit back and wait for (hope for) a middle again....but you are already guaranteed a win on the total already .....even if there is no middle.....
Now....I told you I would give you a carry forward play with next weeks NE/Baltimore game and I put it on the pins over an hour ago ....with plenty of time for you to get in a play with the Giants/GB game carryforward the TAG to next week.....
I told you that I liked Green Bay -9 teased down to -2 to be hooked with that game next week.......
If you wanted to carry forward a play on th etotal ....you would take the bet you had the LEAST MONEY ON (either game over 45.5 or game under 59.5........and hook with the play I gave you.....looking to set up first stage of new middle.....
Remember....you carry forward the total you have LEAST money on...so as to provide chance for another middle......
I just checked the score and it is 3-3 ......so maybe it will take a move at halftime .....CARRIED FORWARD..........to look for your set up ....
I still like GB -2..... in this carry forward move -2 to be the stronger of the side decision......
IF IF IF Giants are ahead at the half .......and you wish to protect your dominant bet on GB-2........you would carry forward GIANTS to win the second half with the SAME TAG AS I GAVE YOU FOR THE GB -2 wager ........
We are sitting in tremendous position with the middle from yesterdays NE/Denver middle on the total ....and the two middles this afternoon on the Baltimore/Houston game ......so do NOT pour all of the profits into this present game ......just follow the guidelines I laid out .....you cannot lose for the day......
it is just a matter of HOW MUCH you win....depending on the outcome of this present game .....and the carry forward money you bet off of the dominant that you carried forward .....
JOHN PATRICK |
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 01/15/12 at 08:04 PM | | #12 |
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Jan. 15...........
I have received a lot of e mails and phone calls asking HOW to handle your halftime bets so I will try and cover all the options .....
there is still 5 minutes left in the half and the score tied 10-10......so lets go to the total of 53 on the game where we have under 59 (when the total opened at 52.....and we have over 45........
Lets say you have more money on the over and want to protect in the event there is no further scoring this half and the half ends at 20 or 23 or even 27.........
The MAN will put a total of either 26 or 27 at the half....which is 50% of the game total.......and since we teased our total to 45 or 46 or even 47....we gained some leverage in setting up the half time hedge .....
You would make a flat bet of UNDER the half time total.....to put an insurance play on the over that you are afraid of .....
OR ....you would take the UNDER the half time number and carry forward in a teaser with the play I gave you on next weeks NE game and BUY points to enhance that TAG.....
If you are loaded on the under in this Giant game .....the worst at the half would be 27 (if someone scores a TD.....) so you would bet (if you wanted to protect your dominant under ....) then put a play on the OVER as your insurance .....
the above suggestions are anoption if you are worried that your dominant total lean might be in danger ....plus with the fact we teased the totals to over 45.5 instead of over 52.5 and under 59.5 instead of under 52.5 ............we have the power of that 7 point differential becasue of the fact that the MAN HAS to put a halftime total of about 50% of the closing total of 53 or 54 for the overall game ....
am I going to protect my wager with this hedge ???????
Is water wet ....it is an insuirance play that protects the bet you have the LEAST GOING FOR YOU ....SO HOW CAN IT HURT....
You can still root for your dominant but if it does NOT come in....you reduced tha amount of the loss on the other side .....
Make your decision now so you have tome to act when the half comes ....
JOHN PATRICK
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 01/22/12 at 03:04 PM | | #13 |
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Jan. 22,
This is a continuation of the messages I put on the pins today ...and could not finish because of lack of time...and it is also a continuation of the message I put out in the opening post on this thread ....
about HOW you people should take a new look at HOW to gamble for the year 2012 ....just give my theories a try ....a look ....a listen....and even though they are conservative ...they are effective ....they work because the KEY is the saving of your BR...by emphasizing LOSS LIMITS and holding losses to a bare minimum by hedging and criss crossing the dominant plays and picks that still can be our main focus in a game ...but protected by the moves that changed my entire gambling life ....
Look at these games in football today.....
Last Monday, as the lines came out for these two games ...I told you immediately who I liked in both games and who I liked in the totals in both games .....and then I showed you HOW HOW HOW to bet them .....
It is not WHO I liked or who you like ....it is HOW you bet WHO you like .... and for the 6 days leading up to these games this afternoon and tonite I showed you the HOW....
and as I told you on the pins ....I have received over 30 messages and e mails ...all mentioning the exact same confiormation of theory ...that you have your dominant bets in place ...and then the moves that guarantee, without any shadow of a doubt .....the plain simple fact that you cannot lose your overall wagers ....
It is called hedging and guarantees (again that word, but it is true)....that the worry of losing money today is non existent .....
I KNOW who I believe will win ....I KNOW who I believe will go over or under ...but that is not enough in gambling.....there are things that happen or will happen today such as fumbles....inteceptions...bad calls .....stupid mistakes ....penalities ......on and on, that will affect the outcome of the game and maybe even work against WHO you took as winner or over or under ...and you are WRONG to put your good money in the hands of the idiots (yes, you heard me) that make these dumb mistakes .....
Last week, a player scored a TD in one of the play off games and put his team up by 3 points ...and one of the lineman then got into a shoving match with the other team ....and this IDIOT...whose team had just gone in front ....took a punch at an opponent (who had 80 lbs of equipment on...plus a face mask ....protecting him from ANY possible body harm.....but the IDIOT did no damage with his punch...except to his team who got a 15 yard personal foul and had to kick 15 yards deeper than the normal kickoff line....
the opposing team then ran the kick back to the 45 yard line ...scored a TD and went on to win.....HOW do you protect against what these idiots can and will do ....in their intent to be noticed !!!!!!!!
That IDIOTIC SELF SERVING mistake (penalty) by that lineman should have resulted in him being taken out of the game ....but the coaches fear these IDIOTS as they are afraid of a backlash move by the other players that could put the coaches job in jeopardy ....so they look the other way....
So I learned HOW ....to protect my bets .....and I told you in my opening post on this thread ....think about what I am saying .....what I am trying to do with telling you HOW to win at sports ....
EVERY single solitary message I got in the last two days from people who did listen have their no lose bets in order ....YES YES YES ...potentially cutting down the potential HIGH payoff they would get if their dominant wins.....
but if they didn't hedge ...they are in danger of losing their wager IF their dominant does not win....with hedging ......we GUARANTEE that we will win money regardless of who wins ...and while the potential payoff of our dominant will not be as high....there is no loss potential....
BUT BUT BUT...and listen to this BUT I give you the opportunity (besides the saving of your wagers ).....the very real possibility of a middle ...where you win both .....
and last weekend we had a super BONANZA of three middles in these playoff games ....and I can't lie about that ...otherwise I would be deluged with complaints of those who could say we did not win those middles ....the fact is we middled 38 NFL games (not including the playoffs...which are easier to middle since the games end up much closer ....and having 14 points to play with......how can we not have super chances to catch these BONANZAS.....it is plain LOGIC!!!!
Yesterday I only gave out three bets ...but ALL OF THEM were leadin plays to the games today ....based on what one needed to protect who they bet as their dominants ....
In hockey Toronto lost (St. Louis won) killing that parlay leadin games .....
In the second parlay I told you to take the East/West All star game OVER 38 and use as lead in to the games you needed to further protect today.....and the game went over 38 (they scored 41)....thereby setting up winning leadin bets to todays games without having to lay out higher bets for your hedges .....
On a personal note, I, (who hedge everything under the sun) also went back and took a teaser on the under 45 (I did NOT give it out since the middle was only 7 points and not the 14 that is usual with hedging both ways for a 14 point chance at a middle ...but I (who believe so strongly in protection...was willing to risk the extra money to even get a 7 point opportunity for a middle....)
Voila, the game ended at 41 points and I caught the middle on the total (over 38 and under 45 ).........
A non important so called all star game gave us the lead in winner to what we have open today (and allows us to cut down the amount of any hedge bet we might have had to make ....)
Finally I gave out a 6 team HL parlay with 4 NBA games last nite leading into more plays on my dominants today ....and please just look at what I laid in the way of amounts of Heavy Lays to make sure my teams had a better chance of winning....
People make comments every week on the message board ....HOW MUCH VIG AM I LAYING ??????? I don't wanna lay more than 2.5% or a lay of -120 .........
Well, look at the prices I laid and still got a potential payoff of 5-1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 5-1 with these enormous heavy lays ....
Miami -325........Dallas -235.......Oklahoma City -360.............Utah -320..........all leading into two football plays today....
And all 4 won and some did NOT need the HL....they won laying the points ...but I still needed them in another game ....so I got a 5-1 payoff pending ....laying over 3-1 in three of those cases .....
THINK what I am showing you....THINK what really matters in gambling (LOSS LIMITS ...that is the key to gambling ....NOT WHO YOU PICK....but HOW you bet WHO you pick ....or have I said that before !!!!!!!!!!!!
Finally....look at where I am sitting with the 4 dominants I have going and where the game means nothing to me until the final 5 minutes when I am rooting for a middle on all 4 categories .....look at the POINT DIFFERENCES
1) NE/Balt. (side).....11 to 14.5 chance for middle .....
2) NE/Balt. (total)....11 to 15.5 chance for middle.....
3) Giants/SF (side) ....4.5 to 14 chance for middle ....
4) Giants/SF (total)....9 to 15 chance for middle.....
Do I care who wins or who goes over or under???? Of course I do ....I want my dominants to win as I have more money on them ...but the LOSS LIMIT HEDGES mean I will not be looking for a bridge tonite after the results are in.....
What will I be doing tonite ...after these so called "great" games are done.....I will be making a bet on the Laker/Indiana game ...for a LOT less money than I know a lot of you will have invested in the afternoon games (with NO protection.....)
And I will be just as interested in the outcome of that so called meaningless game as I am in every bet I make ....and the halftime will get just as much attention in my protecting the wager as if it were these playoff games early on....
These games today and EVERYDAY should be treated as simply vehicles ....VEHICLES to bet on for the chance of winning money ....while at the same time, making sure that the result of your pick does not damage your BANKROLL.....
I will try and get as many of you as possible to grasp what I am telling you about HOW to gamble this year ....
You, on the other hand have the right to NOT listen or NOT read what I am saying ....and pass it off as just a lot of gar......bage!!!!!!!!!!!!
But someday you will get it .....someday.....I guarantee you....you will think about what I am saying and learn HOW to win.....
The only question is ....HOW long does it take to wake up???
Got some more tweaking to do on my open plays.....setting up more protective middle possibilities .....I hope you people do the same with YOUR wagers .....
JOHN PATRICK |
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 01/23/12 at 06:41 PM | | #14 |
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Jan. 23
Yesterday unbelievable run of middles as we again hit 3 middles in the two playoff games in the NFL......and I have been telling you since the start of the new year, to grasp this method of betting ......as you stand the great chance of banging out middles constantly.....
I LOVED NE to win yesterday....in fact I gave it out the very hour it was posted a week ago Monday......but I surely didn't lay the -7.5 points that the MAN put on the game ....
My advice .....suggestion......pick, whatever you wanna call it was indeed NE to win....but in teasers and BUYS, bringing the lay from -7.5 down to -.5 and then going back and with the use of lead in games ......taking Baltimore, who was getting 7.5 points .....
UP to plus 14.5 in teasers and +9 and +11 and plus 13 in TAGS off of multi lead ins ....
So I was not the super picker of telling you to take NE as they were surely not only going to win....but cover the 7.5 lay....
NO NO NO that is NOT the way to bet ....you take a fav as close to pick em as you can and THEN you go back and go the other way in a hedging pattern....
so.......yesterday NE won by 3 ....covering ALL of my bets on them....and Balt plus 9 and 11 and 13 and 14.5 gave us the middle....
I had the under in thegame (under 58 and under 55 and under 54 and they all won also ....but we had the hedge of over 43.5 and over 45 and over 46 that did not give us a middle....but the dominant won...which is what you initially shoot for ....
Same with the pick on the Giants ....I said take the +1.5 and bang it up to +8 and +6 and +5 and they all won......and SF plus 4 and +3.5 gave us middles there ....
and finally the total of 41 and 43 teased down to over 34 and 35 and 36 and 37 allowed for ANOTHER middle ...I loved the over and gave it out early.....but when the rains came and the line dove drastically from 44 to 40.5 .....I jumped all over the over 34 and 35 ....and cris crossed back to under 48 ...to go with the initial hedge of over 46 and 47 etc ....and AGAIN caught the middle (making 6 in two weeks).....
THAT is the way to bet ....
I would NOT have won the over if I went over the ititial line of 43 and 44 .....I would NOT have won the NE game minus 7.5 but I tell you people very single day....
It is NOT in who you pick that counts ......it is HOW you bet WHO you pick....and yesterday was a super and I mean super BONANZA.....I lost one game (the over 43.5 in the NE game by a freckle (half point)....
I HOPE you people are thinking about trying the right way to bet sports .....
today ....I gave out my choices for the super Bowl....but I knew who I was going to use as the dominant 5 mnutes after the game ended and I had pre determined that the lay would be -3 which it was ....and the toptal would b either 53 or 54 or 55 and it was 55.......which is NOT a good number to use as a possible middle but I will anyway ......you want numbers that are keyed off of LOGICAL set ups of possible TD's and FG's.....55 is not one of those numbers ....but we will work something out .....
and the next two weeks will be very very busy for setting up the plays for that weekend .....and you can bet the ranch that we will not be wiped out ......
The set ups will be geared to the poimnt that the game will be meaningless until the last quarter ......but who gives a rats tail..........I am only interested in winning at least one middle .....but if that does not happen....the absolute worst that can happen is a small win or push (depending) on the final score .....
But we can't lose both....that is a 100% impossibility !!!!!!!!!!
I told you in the beginning of the month to make 2012 the year you fianlly grow up and bet the way you SHOULD !!!!!!!!
It is your choice ....I can lay the groundwork....you gotta have the guts and DISCIPLINE to follow the rules ....
In fact.I already did lay the groundwork...but maybe it did not sink in.......
JOHN PATRICK
JOHN PATRICK |
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 01/24/12 at 08:12 PM | | #15 |
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Jan. 24,
Gave a follow up seminar last nite at a club where i game an original one back around the first of the month ....and around the time I started this thread about making a resolution for the year 2012 ....
to make a concerted effort to grasp and use the grinding process of gambling that I advocate ......I told those people to spend the next couple of weeks using a WG of no more than 20% ...........a LOSS LIMIT of 30% and a GUARANTEE & EXCESS move of 50-50..........
There were about 170 people who showed up this time...after about 90 in the initial group....so the results can only be attribute to those of the 90 who gambled ....and that number was exactly 72 of SOME sort of wagering ....mostly sports and Poker and PAI GOW POKER ...which is available at the Hard rock Casino in Tampa......
1) 72 gambled at something or the other ...............
2) 62 won (you figure the pct. (I ain't a math person)...
3) 10 lost ..........
4) Highest winning amount $330.......(several outlets)...
5) Highest losing amount .........$270..........6 of them lost playing Poker ....
6) Smallest winning amounts .....A couple in the $50 to $60 range .....the rest of the majority was aboaut $140....
7) Smallest losing amounts ....three people lost about $60 each...betting $5 wagers ......
What is the purpose of this survey??????
When I went there I used a hand count from the people to determine how many were losing and how many winning over the past 2 months .....
the pct . of winners was 65 of the 90 were losing anywhere from $140 to about $500.........
None had a winning profit of over $200 in that 2 month span of November and december .....
All I did was ask them to try my THEORY and stick with it ...especially the LOSS LIMIT mandate .....
There was one question I asked that drew a 100% response .....
"DO YOU PEOPLE BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE TO WIN AT GAMBLING.....WITH THE CONSERVATIVE RESTRAINTS I USE AT THE GAMES I RECOMMEND.........."
Now, they all agreed ...and whether they were trying to not stand out in the crowd.........there were still many BUTS to the agreement factor......
1) I wanna win more .....
2) It is boring......
3) It prevents GIGANTIC payoffs.....
4) It is time consuming.....
5) when you reach your WG ....and even your G & E add on....you have to go home.....
6) I NEED more of a return.....
7) Sometimes I leave with the LOSS LIMIT and feel frustrated I did not stay longer ......
8) It takes the FUN out of gambling (that one statement drew the MOST responses ).....
Of course there were those that loved the approach....mostly because they rarely did win with THEIR approach and MM betting techniques .......
It was tough to get an accurate count of the nay sayers ...those who fell into the 8 BUTS I listed above .....but the overall result of the tab.........
was about 65 in FAVOR of the grind...and 35 still somewhat reluctant to commit .....
I thought it was a very interesting nite that listed for over 3 hours ....and don't forget, I did nOT include the newcomers into thetabulation...only those 70 or so that committed to playing in the past couple of weeks .....
What did this prove?????
Surveys rarely answer the question that it is (was) intended to .....but it does allow the person taking the test (so to speak) to look at their own method of play and win or lose decide if that approach is for him/her.....
I CAN vouch for this pct...........the amount of women who voted for the conservative approach ..........OVER whelmingly was the majority of those leaning to my style of play .....conservative ....
I spent the next two hours going over Pai Gow Poker ....BJ (yeah, they still insist on hearing the HOW to play).....and then some sports and some craps as many are planning on going to Vegas in the next several months ......
Personally, I think I made my pernt about the success one can have with the conservative GRIND...and while I definitel see the fact that others want a bigger KILL at the tables .....i believ the majority of those in attendance last nite will continue to use my "suggestions".......
That is what I am asking you people here to do....just for one year ....what have you got to lose ??????
Maybe you will become a convert ......I am not exactly starving with following this approach for lo these many years ......
BUT....I AGREE I am most happy when those BONANZA days pop up......and the tingle to bet higher is a constant gnawing at my (what's left of it ) brain!!!!!!!!!!
But when push comes to shove (my time to hedge arrives or my time to leave the table comes)....there I am reverting to what works ......
JOHN PATRICK
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