| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 11/17/10 at 07:58 PM | | #1 |
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November 17,
Obviously something is wrong with my being able to post messages on the other sports picks thread ......Yesterdays plays did not get posted and my mesage earlier today ...also the same .......I can't get it onto that thread so will have to see if a new thread will do it ....
Yesyerday swept the board as we continue to roll in college football (except on Saturdays ).....but won the over in the Temple/Ohio game last nite.... leading into the TAG tonite in the Akron/Miami Ohio game .....
WE won both of the TAGS in the NFL over the weekend....making for a continuance of a red hot run.....but that still did not deter me from hedging, going for the middles ......
and tonite is the same situation....even though it is a teaser with limited payoff......due to the screwing these sites do to the returns ....
But you HAVE to hold potential losses down ......so even though it is a two team open teaser, in a no lose situation.....go for the protection.....even a partial protection......and my suggestion is on the pins ......
Tonite we also have a new teaser on the late game between Toledo and Bowling Green....with 3 back end games........
Then we have a new SHOT .......a 3 teamer in Hockey.....plus a 2 team days pay parlay...........since I have been hitting with hockey .....along with the great football run......
but it goes in line with what I say all the time.......Trends dominate!!!!!!!!!!!!!
no hoops tonite
Free Pick
Toledo/Bowling Green........47.5...........40.5
I went over the same explanation last nite and tonite is more of the same........
Bowling Green has played 8 games & 6 of them have gone over the teased number of 40.5........
Toledo has played 9 games and 7 went over 41.......
Just proves that trends do dominate......
Sooooooooo, hoping this hot run continues, it is obvious that I don't need a lucky kern to tell me to put the money on the ...............................OVER
JOHN PATRICK
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| strato58 |
| | 11/17/10 at 08:43 PM | | #2 |
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Toledo/Bowling Green line on bodog is 55 not 40.5....
So much for the free pick game. |
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| Nick Barth |
| | 11/18/10 at 12:30 AM | | #3 |
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With time left in the 3rd quarter there has been more than 60 points scored in the above "free pick" game. Knowing John, when he typed his message today he put the Akron game Over under number
instead. Just a guess. Even at 55 the Toledo game was an over play
which I put into a teaser hooked with Thursday night and the Sunday tag. |
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 11/18/10 at 12:47 AM | | #4 |
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MY MISTAKE.......
I checked the pins and I put the right message on......
The picks today were (as you people on the service are aware of), as follows .....
1) Miami, Ohio/Akron game.... 47.5......teased down to over 40.5 as the TAG off of the winning Ohio/Temple game on Tuesday......I gave out OVER 40.5 in that Miami, Ohio game on the pins and it went down...although the hedge covered the amount of the wager ....resulting in a push for the overall wager that started yesterday.....
2) In the Toledo/Bowling Green game the over/under it is 54....and I did NOT give that game out .....rather the play in that game was Toledo -10.5 teased down to Toledo -3.5 and the game is still on.....
I did not give a total pick on that game as I liked the over but the line of 54 was toooooo high so I went for the side instead (Toledo -3.5)
So.........when I put the free Pick on this thread, I mistakenly said Toledo/Bowling Green game over 40.5 an obvious mistake .....because the line was 54 ....and I did NOT give out an opinion on the total...as you heard on the pins.......
My apologies ...........
So.....
I lost the bet on the over in the Akron game.....
We won the hedge on the under, which is carried forward with a couple of games later in the week......
and the decision on Toledo to win -3.5 is not completed as yet.......
As I said, my apologies, I fouled up by saying the Free Pick was over in the Toledo game ....when in fact it was over 40.5 in the Akron game .....
As to the gentleman who caught the mistake .....you needn't sound so smug......you were totally right in catching my mistake .....but you didn't have to make it sound like you invented a cure for the common cold.......just come out and say I screwed up......
By the way......where were your comments (snide, I might add) on the 17 out of 21 past days when I was giving out winners .....?????????
Get a little class in your posts ......I understand YOU (strato) had the monitor delete 3 of your posts already this weak for rotten comments to other posters ........
Don't cut your fingernails..........you are hanging on at this site by 4 or 5 of those little suckers ........don't push your luck with your mouth!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JOHN PATRICK |
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 11/18/10 at 04:01 AM | | #5 |
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Nick
You're totally right .......I meant to give out the over in the Akron game (over40.5)....as I did on the pins ....but typed in Toledo and Bowling green by mistake .........
I just looked at my e mails and about 15 people caught it .....but KNEW I must have screwed up.........which I did ....
I see by the time of your post...you were putting in YOUR message as I was typing mine......so your guess was totally correct .....
it just amazes me the total amount of classless acts by people on the Internet ....so quick to rip another person...without using the time to figure that the person simply made a mistake ......
I lost the over bet on the Akron game but won the hedge ....and also won the Toledo game -3.5 which is alive with backend games .....
I thought the toledo number was tooooo high at 54 or 55 .....and you really got hurt ....it appears your teaser went down by one point .........they failed to score even one point in the last quarter .......
thanks for the back up.......
JOHN PATRICK
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| strato58 |
| | 11/18/10 at 11:52 AM | | #6 |
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John if that rip was at me id like you to know i was not ripping you. I figured the line changed and i missed the game. I dont follow college football so had no idea about the mistake. I was actually going to try your free pick but did not because it was at 55 and again I thought the line changed...plus im not in Vegas but have to use an online service to place my sports bets.
This site seems to be full of babys...im surprised because i thought gamblers had some backbone.
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 11/18/10 at 07:23 PM | | #7 |
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November 18,
Yesterday...as I explained....I made a MISTAKE and screwed up the pick of the day...and I truly apologize.....it was my error in putting the wrong teams in the over bet ....but the Akron game lost anyway.......
Here is the bottom line on what I put on the pins yesterday.....
1) We had an open no lose teaser from Tuesday on the Akron game to go over 40.5 yesterday ......and they lost .....killing the dominant teaser.....
2) But I TOLD you on the pins to go back and take the over 54 in the Akron game as a hedge ....and that won....leading to three back end games which naturally still alive ...so that wager is open....
3) I gave you Toledo -3.5 to kick off another teaser and that won....with the EXACT SAME 3 backend football games that are on that Akron open teaser .....
So even though we lost the TAG on the open wager ....we now have two other plays open .......
4) I gave you a three team parlay in Hockey and the two kickoff games won (Detroit and Washington both won)......and the TAG at 10:30 ET was Kings to beat Columbus ....but that if the two early games won...go back and hedge onto Columbus, to protect your bet .......Columbus won....giving us a PUSH for the wager .....
5) A two team Hockey parlay went 1-1.....Chicago won but San Jose blew a 3-1 lead and lost in OT......giving us a loss on that play (it could not be hedged)
Overall a loss for the day, due to the Hockey loss and TAG loss on the Akron game ....... but we picked up two wagers that are in open teasers .....
Tonite on your pins is a three team Hockey HL Parlay.....and two teasers in the NFL.......
Plus, I added a twist to the play on the NFL games to GUARANTEE that we will get at least one of the plays to the late games ....and by setting up the middles, we could get there with all three wagers ....
But it is impossible to lose all three ......
Free Pick
Miami -2.5 vs Bears.......(+9.5)
TRAP??????????? Smells like one .....in fact the stench started when they posted the opening line on this game and continues to right now....a few hours before the contest .....
But....the lean towards the dog is so over whelming, that I am going with the obvious ........
Chicago has a dominating defense and an edge with a hot QB in Cutler.....plus holding opposition running backs to minimal yardage on the ground ......
This game is in the same situation as last Sunday, when the MAN made the Colts a 3 (plus the teaser up to +10) point dog .....we took the points and won that one......
And I am doing the same tonite, sticking this into a teaser with the additional points going to the dog, giving me a Plus 9.5 and putting my money on ...................................CHICAGO
JOHN PATRICK
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 11/19/10 at 08:37 PM | | #8 |
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Nov. 19,
Last nite won both of our kickoff teaser wagers .....giving us two more open plays for the late games and TAGS.......
Chicago won outright and has two back up games for Sunday, including the tAG.....
The game went under....also with two back end games on Sunday and both of these wagers are in TZ with TAGS in perfect position.......
Note that the hedged criss cross on the first level both went down....but I'll take that every nite ....if it means moving two wagers to the second level......
Lost the Hockey parlay.......and on the pins I told you the reason I was going with Phila. was that they were one of the top defensive teams in the league.....if you noticed ....9 goals were scored in the first period......so much for form holding up......
Tonite there is a play on the college football game ....and you already have it into open plays from early in the week.....but for those of you who did NOT have them included .....I made it a kickoff game for 4 early college games tomorrow .....
This way, it is a two pronged reason....
1) By adding this game as a kickoff play, you can reduce the amount of the overall wager .....because there are 5 teams instead of 4......
2) and IF tonites game goes down......the wager amount was reduced ....and you merely pick up the 4 games I gave you for tomorrow and make it a 4 teamer ......
there is also a three team Hockey parlay ....paying almost 3-1 (no TZ)....plus a two teamer in Hockey......for a days pay....OR OR OR I gave you the option of adding on some NFL games on the back end ....YOUR choice......
Finally, I listed the NFL games I like for Sunday .....three at 1 pm.......one at 4 pm.....and the two TAGS on sunday and Monday nite ....but I have been giving you them all week so you should be fully entrenched with them as TAGS.....
Free Pick
Washington -165 vs Atlanta ....
Atlanta a tough team to figure as they are just as capable as losing against a team they should beat to winning against a better team .....
But look at the key stat in Hockey....goals allowed .....and that is where you separate consistency from non form....
Washington is steady at giving only about 2.5 goals a game ......while the generous Atlanta defense is way over 3 gpg....
I have three teams in this power vs dog entry with the nod in this game obviously going to ...........WASHINGTON
JOHN PATRICK
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 11/22/10 at 08:10 PM | | #9 |
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Nov. 22,
Yesterday SUPER BONANZA....swetp the board for a run of 7-0.......PLUS, we caught the middle on the TAG ....with the dominant pick (over 41.5 in the Giants/Eagle).....
then goping back and catching a terrific middle with the under ....
In fact of the 7 picks I gave out .....all starting with a teaser ....only ONE (Pitt game over needd the points...and they covered the wagers that had theh teaser over 34.5....
Every other play won outright .....
A fabulous day...and now leading into the TAG tonite in the SD/Denver game .....and already the dominat is over loaded with plays usin git as the TAG ....as I have been giving it out since last Monday nite ......
Now we have a 14 to 15.5 middle set up alrady......I don't have to put a nickle up tonite ....but merely wait for a middle ....but it is guaranteed that we can't lose BOTH leans ....
I still like the dominant I have been giving out for 6 days ......and if you ant a couple of games to use as the back end of the opposite tonite .....they are on the pins in TZ ......
I also gave you a couple of kparlays in hockey and hoops ......but the key is in the football game where we are over 855 in the /Sunday and Monday nite TAGS.......
You can use the hockey/hoops plays as SHOTS ....as they have a tZ set up in one of them and an option to carry forward to the games on Thursday.....
The only blemish on the weekend is my penchantfor being lousy on Saturday....It is so unbelievable how the leans on tha day jus tdo not hold up....
I said last week I would not give out any plays but I relented and gave out a couple ....and the results n o way came near the rest of the week and especially Sunday....
If we catch the middle tonite........it will be a tremendous week....
Free Pick
Kings (Pick) at Ottowa.......
As the hockey season settles in....there are 5-6-7 tams that are starting to pole their collective noses in front of the pack....and riding a hot trend witha team is the way to handle sports ....
Kings shot out of the gate and we caught them 3 time s....but the last few games they have been beaten.....although their defense remains in the top 5 in the league .....
and coupled with playing a team (even ou their home ice) giving up goals in bunches .......you have to ride the pattern of defense .....
I put this into a three teamer with another early entry and a TAG....but first we need a win by the ...................................KINGS
JOHN PATRICK
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 11/23/10 at 07:37 PM | | #10 |
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Nov.23,
Another great day in football ....even though we lost our two side parlays on Hoops and hockey.......but you have to take a chance with other wagers when there was only one football game and we are on such a roll.....
And the roll turned intoa win by the TAG over to cap all of our open BUYS and teasers .....and then we caught the middle (under 57, with the hedges over the weekend....plus the carry forward hedge that leads into the games on Thursday....
That made the TAGS on both Sunday and Monday nites great middles .......maning the week was a BONANZA (sans Saturday...but we already went over that .....
Tonite is a play on the college football game ....and a couple of NBA parlays, leading into the football games .....
It was a pleasure hearing from so many people today (ESPECIALLY newcomers this session.....all claiming ...."NOW I see what you mean by hedging to catch those middles .....
Just for the sake of banging home a point ......after I put in all my plays last nite ....and had atotally no lose situation set up witht he over 43 and under 57 teasers .....there was really no reason to even watch the game until the 4th quarter .....
so just to get a little action into the early kquyarters, I decided to go back and play a double criss cross off of the football game....by putting the bet into a BUY of 3 points, leading into the games on Thursday......
Now.....since I was already guaranteed a hugh payday, even without a middle .....I could have made the wagers over 51 and under 51........guaranteeing I would get to the back end games and make a better payoff for myself ....
But I DIDN'T............instead, I bought 3 points on each side and had over 48 and under 54.....going for a 6 point middle .....
Voila the game ends at 49.......giving me a winner on BOTH kickoff plays .....and if I was greedy and went over the pro numberof 49 I would NOT have won the over play....this way I caught bothlead in plays ....
The point I am trying to make is that even 3 points can mean the difference in a win or lose situation....and I GLADLY accept the potentially smaller returns to get those extra points .....and I did th esame again tonite in that college game .......
Free Pick
Lakers/Chicago........202.5
Lakers averaging over 105 ppg and are a threat to score everytime they come down the court .....but tonite they run into a team that is not Blessed on the offensive side of the ball.....
but have put together a nice record, strictly on defense ....I think 7 of their past 9 games they held the opposition to less that 98 points........
I KNOW we are now talking about shutting down the Laker machine ......but I am a strong believer in the defense dominating in games between two strong clubs.....
With a number at 202.5........lets say the Lakers and Chicago put together a quarter of only 43 to 47 points .....
that means they have to pick up the slack in the other quarters and with a number that high....and a team committed to defense....I am looking for the MAN having set the number about 6-7 clicks too high....
So I made this second pick, a play on the .....................................UNDER 202.5
JOHN PATRICK
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 11/29/10 at 07:54 PM | | #11 |
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November 29,
Yesterday went 4-2 in the NFL....with the two losses being Atlanta lost....Colts lost .....
But the biggie (again) was another middle on the TAG of the over in the Colts/SD game where the dominant was over 44.4......which won and since it was a TAG.....
We went back and took the under 58.5 in teasers and under 54.5 in BUYS ....and both came in .....giving us three consecutive TAGS being middled (including last weekends Sunday and Monday nite games ....making the decision for going for these middles so sucessful.....
Tonite we have another chance for a middle with the NFL game between Arizona/San Fran.....
You already had the TAG since last Monday and Tuesday...and tonite I gave you the carry forward plays (3 of them) to be carried forward ....
You can use one or two or all three (I personally used all 3, set in TZ off of the opposite of the dominant)......
There is also a two team hoops SHOT on the pins ...as I wanna get back to the SHOT again.....looking for a long streak....and I started this one with a two teamer (instead of the usual 3).....
Free Pick
Miami/Washington......198
I did not buy any points on this entry but you are free to do so, if you feel so inclined .....I just feel that it will not be needed in this kickoff game .....while the TAG got a BUY......
James is a disgrace in what he did to the team in cleveland ....and he is so intent in showing that he can be the MAN on a team ...that he is coming up short practically every game, where they sit 9-8.......
Larry Bird he ain't or Magic Johnson or Jabbar or Kobe Bryant or Jordan....or any of the real super stars that CAN carry a team.....
I believe they have to change the approach on the court and with a number almost at the 200 mark....tonite, against a weak Washington team............ would be a good place to put that new approach into action....
Meaning they play a thing called defense, leading to the result being an ....................................UNDER
JOHN PATRICK
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 11/30/10 at 05:44 PM | | #12 |
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Nov. 30,
Yesterday lost our TAG in football......when the game did not go over ......
We won our hedge ...and also the carry forward of under, hooked with the teams I gave you for next Sunday.....
Lost the SHOT in the NBA when the kickoff game (under 197.5 ended at 199......
tonite I have given you another SHOT in hoops .....with a 3 team NBA kickoff parlay...and you are restricted to the amount for this first bet ......
there is also a HL STRING parlay with two NBA games leding into two of the games in the NFL next week.....
Just a note....last Monday and tuesday the total on the SF game was 40 and I told you to put in a carry forward over 33....hooked with the games the TAG last nite .....
I had the over 33 in teasers hooked with last nites game ...and at least caught a push ....as the line eventually climbed to 42.....which meant a teased number of 35 wouldlose ....
I already gave you next weeks Monday nite dominant TAG.....so if you are going to use it ....get in early....as I believe the number will change and even a half point can cost you a bet ....
Free Pick
Indiana -165 at Sacramento.....
Pacers are not a good team but they have a couple of quality players, such as granger, who is good for 24 plus points a nite ....and going against a Sacramento team....that will struggle to win 28-30 games is a plus ....
Last week, the Kings scored a horrendous 9 points in a 12 minute 4th quarter .....this is truly a bad team.....
tonite, I gave you two 7 pm games and this TAG which clearly goes to ........................INDIANA
JOHN PATRICK
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 12/01/10 at 07:22 PM | | #13 |
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December 1,
Yesterday the dreaded one loss per parlay meant that a 3-2 overall picks still resulted in the loss..
Boston (7-1 vs Memphis) loses by a deuce ....and the Orland game does not go over .....the other three picks win....but that is the curse of the parlay.....
Tonite there is a HL SHOT in the NBA and a two team SHOT in Hockey.......
Both SHOTS are attempts to get out of the gate ...and therefore immediately get in the no lose situation.......and I also gave you the NFL plays for this Sunday, with the two dey TAGS.....
Free Pick
Lakers -275 vs Houston.....
this is one of the plays in the HL STRING SHOT.....and maybe it seems odd going for a team that has lost 3 in a row .....but it is the other side of the coin I am looking at.....
Houston is in complete disaray ....and rarely even competitive in the games they end up losing.....
Lakers lost a toughie last nite that cost us a winning parlay of three teams ....but it is a team that has all the ingredients of winning on any given nite .....
Price is right ....competition is ripe for another loss and the feeling here is that the play is on the ...........LAKERS
JOHN PATRICK
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 12/03/10 at 05:52 PM | | #14 |
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Dec. 3,
Yesterday almost a BONANZA ....
won both football games .....both leading into the games on the weekend ....
Won the two team kickoff SHOT in Hockey with Kings winning and Pitt winning.....meaning today there is Level number 2 on the pins....in a no lose situation....
Went 1-1 in hoops with Miami winning but GS game not going over ....but it was TAG off of early win, so a hedge gave us a push for that bet ....everything else won..
Tonite there is a second level SHOT on your pins....plus two football plays .....where we are still scorching....
Free Pick
Miami Ohio/Northern Illinois......54.5..........(61.5)
No. Illinois is for real....and I mentioned this several times this year ...they are a solid 10-2 and will win tonite ...but I ain't layin 18 for nobody...
But 5 of their last 7 games have gone under 61.5 (teased number)
Plus, Miami Ohio have gone 9 straight games where their total of the games they played went under 61.5...
No wonder I put this as the kickoff in a 4 team STRING teaser ......
and the decision was an easy.................................... UNDER 61.5
JOHN PATRICK |
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| JOHN PATRICK |
| | 12/05/10 at 03:01 PM | | #15 |
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Dec. 5,
Yesterday, a saturday has been bad all year....to the point I gave out one parlay yesterday....a HL 6 teamer ....with the positive thinking that these 6 teams looked so good ....
BONANZA.....finally, a winning 8-1 paying six teamer that kicked off a great return...making up for the 3-4 really tough losses thisn week....
Today, I gave you the three teasers that I have been giving you all week....including setting them up for you in TZ fashion...and then allowing for the possibility of mixing the plays into your OWN wager ....
Free Pick
Pitt/Baltimore .......39.5.....(32.5)
Here is the TAG of of the lead in games for the weekend.....and looking at this game from the outside, you have two defensive giants ....both play strong defense....both rely on a ground game ....
But think about the HOW TO WAGER theory that I show you....It matter HOW you bet and looking at a number of 39.5 teased down to 32.5 leaves a great chance at the half for protection....even if the first half kicks off onluy a 14 point total between the two ....
It is tempting to bet the under ...although with this being a TAG....that will be the move if the early games come in...
But for my dominant lean.....bringing the total to a cozy 32.5.......I went for the ............OVER
JOHN PATRICK
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